9 Comments

Fantastic piece. As a longtime fan, the following excerpt hit home for me;

“extract maximum value for as long as they can before they eventually burn the combat sports/sports entertainment carcass to the ground.”

Immediately, post UFC sale, as a fan I noticed the changes. The old UFC Fight Club perks were gone; you used to get a free event poster at a live event and a free meet and greet… all removed.

Also as UFC Fight Club membership, you would get a goody-bag of merch in the post when renewing an annual membership…. all removed.

My next event is a Cage Warriors event as even if UFC came to Ireland, the price:fight quality ratio would be off.

Currently the UFC reminds me of the Celtic Tiger years ago here in Ireland. It’s a big bubble and it’s going to burst. When it did burst, the bond holders were protected and paid, with the public footing the bailout bill.

When this bubble bursts, is it the “normal” shareholders that will take the ultimate hit.

Expand full comment

In a previous article, I wrote that UFC-friendly alternatives like RIZIN or Cage Warriors would pick up some interest and steam from regular UFC customers looking to switch things up. I think it will be a good year for non-PFL players.

Watching Wall Street financialize UFC debt has been a revelation.

Expand full comment

yea I've seen what track the UFC has been on for almost a decade now and it's almost a relief that it's finally getting closer to the end of the run. I expect them to land a mega-streaming deal and then dump it on some dumb money whale like Softbank or the Saudis. And those idiots will run it into the ground in no time at all.

Of course TKO has strip mined the goodwill and talent base so much that I don't think any player can recover.

It's just a fact of life that as long as the athletes are limited to less than 20% of the revenue that the very greatest athletes won't bother.

That's on top all we've learned about the long-term health consequences of devoting yourself to MMA.

Expand full comment

You nailed it here Zach.

Expand full comment

I think there will be room for disagreement. A lot of sharps still believe Disney will keep UFC PPV rights but the longer WWE's success is with Netflix in Q1 2025, the more tempting it will be for Netflix to increase their bid offer. Just makes too much sense.

Expand full comment

Amazon is still in the hunt too. Even if they're the worst choice of the 3, Ari will use them to raise the price

Expand full comment

In Netflix's favor, their streaming experience is just much more frictionless for viewers than ESPN PPVs. Netflix will still probably pony up because, as you mentioned, bigger is better and the UFC definitely makes them much bigger while diminishing Disney. But, does their superior user experience (and Netflix knowing they've got that) temper any price Endeavor asks for here?

Expand full comment

I think Ari gives no fucks about the viewer experience and only cares about the bottom line.

Expand full comment

Fans have all the power. It’s called don’t buy the shit. All it takes is one or two revenue bombs and the sports world will get their football and wrestling back. Easy peasy. Act now!

Expand full comment