UFC Vegas 93 picks and predictions
See who we are picking to win inside the UFC APEX on Saturday.
The UFC is in the APEX on Saturday night with a card truly befitting of the surroundings. I say that because, outside of an interesting main event, we’ve basically got an extended version of the Contender Series waiting for us this weekend.
The headliner has Tatsuro Taira, who currently feels like a can’t miss prospect at flyweight, taking on Alex Perez. Perez just bruised the chances of Matheus Nicolau getting a shot at 125 lbs gold. Will he do the same to Taira?
The co-main event might have been removed from the card by the time this goes out. It seems as though Ikram Aliskerov is being drafted into the UFC’s Saudi Arabia card to meet Robert Whittaker. He’s needed there because Khamzat Chimaev has been forced out with a mystery injury/illness.
The rest of this card are folks who are still two wins away from getting Wikipedia pages. They could still put on fun fights, though. And these fights are still listed on sportsbooks, so some of you will still be interested in what goes down.
We’ve looked at the match-ups, painful as they are, and have decided who we think will win. Do with that what you may. But please remember to only bet what you can afford to lose (in sports and in life).
Lets.
Alex Perez (+165) vs. Tatsuro Taira (-195)
Dayne: Perez saved his UFC career when he knocked Matheus Nicolau silly, reminding us all why he got the call to challenge for the flyweight title over three years ago. However, this will be his third fight in just over three months. For someone who was only able to fight a single time across a three year span, that’s a massive jump in activity… and a lot of weight cutting in a short amount of time.
Against Taira, Perez can’t afford to be short on energy. Taira is one of the more technical grapplers within the division and Perez has a long history of being submitted, five of his eight career losses coming via that manner. I wouldn’t be so sure of Taira getting the job done given Perez shouldn’t be viewed as someone who dives into submissions, but the resurgence in activity is concerning to me. Let me put it this way: the last time he fought with this frequency, he was 25. Now 32, the weight cut is more difficult than it was at 25 and Perez tends to fight at a high pace. Not to mention the smaller weight classes age quicker than the larger and I feel quite confident in picking Taira. Taira via submission of RD3
Tim: This is great match-making. Taira was initially due to fight Joshua Van, but this makes way more sense. It’s a decent test for Taira and it doesn’t blunt another potential rising star. Perez is a tough veteran, and his last performance was phenomenal, but he’s not suited for this match-up. Five of his eight pro losses are by submission and a number of those came at well below the UFC level. And Taira is one of the more dangerous submission threats he’s faced. Taira might try and be cute and do something on the feet against Perez, but I think he’s likely to take him down at some point and find his way to victory on the ground. Tatsuro Taira via submission, round 4.
Nate: Taira is the real deal. Perez has gone as far he can now and I don’t think he can keep the gate shut for this young up and comer. Tatsuro Taira via submission
Picking Perez:
Picking Taira: Dayne, Stephie, Kristen, Nate, Eddie, Tim
Ikram Aliskerov (-1250) vs. Antonio Trocoli (+700)
Dayne: This fight sucks. I’m glad Aliskerov is still getting a paycheck as Trocoli steps in on short notice, but this is a terrible mismatch. Aliskerov is going to walk out with what may be the easiest victory of his career. Aliskerov via submission of RD1
Tim: This bout probably doesn’t happen now. It feels like Trocoli was being punished with this match-up. He was cut a few years ago for popping for nandrolone on the Contender Series. After he was re-signed he pulled out of fights with Ovince Saint Preux and then super prospect Oumar Sy. Making him come down in weight to fight Aliskerov was cruel. If this fight had happened, Aliskerov would have gotten him out of there in 60 seconds or less. Ikram Aliskerov via KO, round 1.
Picking Aliskerov: Stephie*, Dayne*, Kristen, Nate, Tim
Picking Trocoli:
Lucas Almeida (+165) vs. Timmy Cuamba (-195)
Dayne: Cuamba has the higher upside between the two. He’s a better athlete, I would anticipate he has more stamina, and is the busier striker. Typically, that’s enough for me to pick him. However, in this case, I think everyone is sleeping on Almeida. Almeida’s two UFC losses came to some solid competition in Andre Fili and Pat Sabatini. I’m still not sure if Bolaji Oki, the man Cuamba lost to, is a keeper. Plus, Almeida’s got some serious power…
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