UFC Vegas 101 picks and predictions
See who we are picking to win this weekend.
The UFC is back this weekend, with its first card of 2025. And what a card it is! We’ve got a strawweight rematch nobody asked for the in the main event and two guys coming off losses in the co-main. Hopefully the UFC is not starting the year as they mean to go on, but… who are we kidding here? Buckle up for aging veterans and Contender Series alums on these Vegas cards all year long.
It’s not all doom and gloom, though. Next weekend’s UFC 311 is all killer, no filler. But we’ll get there when we get there.
This weekend is all about the APEX. And we’ve got lots of picks for all the fights that are happening there.
This time last year we were doing picks on Bloody Elbow. But, of course, that all changed a few months later. So this year will be the first one with picks done entirely on The MMA Draw. Everyone making picks here was around in the BE days, though. This year I’m going to be promoting each of these folks so you can follow the great work they are doing across the interwebs.
The new year also means a fresh start for our picking contest. Last year’s contest went down to the wire with Stephie managing to stay in front of Eddie to claim her first championship! (Trophy is in the mail, Steph).
We are also adding an extra wrinkle to our picks this year. We’re giving you our over/under picks on the main card, too.
If you’re using this info for betting, please do so responsibly. And win, too!
Mackenzie Dern (+160) vs. Amanda Ribas (-190)
Miguel Class: We’re six years removed from their first fight but I don’t think Dern has been able to address the fundamental issues that caused her to lose to Ribas. Like is too often the case with high-level BJJ imports, Dern cannot wrestle and while she can be dangerous from her back, she hasn’t been able to materialize a submission from the bottom since her kneebar victory over Hanah Cifers nearly 5 years ago.
In fact, Dern hasn’t submitted anyone in her last seven bouts, meaning that her primary path to victory is just controlling opponents on the ground long enough to win rounds. But without a reliable way to get there, she has become incredibly matchup dependent…
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