UFC St. Louis: Lewis vs. Nascimento picks

Check out who we think will win this weekend in St. Louis.

The Black Beast by Chris Rini.

The UFC heads to St. Louis this weekend (RIP Punisher Bass). There the world’s premier mixed martial arts promotion will treat us to Derrick Lewis vs. Rodrigo Nascimento in the main event. The co-main sees local KO artist Joaquin Buckley take on Nursulton Ruziboev.

Us former Bloody Elbow-ites have looked over all the fights on the card and picked who we think is going to win. In the main event, we’re unanimous. We all think that Derrick Lewis still has plenty of pop in his bat and that he’ll be able to make contact on Nascimento.

To read the rest of our picks, scroll down below. And please hit us with your picks in the comment section.

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Derrick Lewis vs. Rodrigo Nascimento

Dayne: I’ve seen many compare Nascimento to Serghei Spivac and that’s a fair comparison to a certain degree. Both are rangy heavyweights whom are most comfortable operating on the mat. Nascimento is probably the better pure grappler in comparison to Spivac, but he’s also not nearly as successful of a takedown artist. In fact, Nascimento has only successfully completed takedowns in two of his six UFC contests. I don’t see him taking down the bulky Lewis in the same manner Spivac did.

More concerning for Nascimento is Lewis’ power. Nascimento was blasted by Chris Daukaus in less than a minute. While I understand MMA math doesn’t carry much weight, Lewis blasted Daukaus in a manner similar to how he had disposed of Nascimento. More concerning is Nascimento hasn’t progressed as well on the feet as his backers would have hoped. Lewis’ durability isn’t what it once was, but he still has power and I think his chin is likely to hold up to whatever Nascimento throws at him. Given I’m not too worried about Nascimento getting Lewis to the mat and I’m feeling confident Lewis wins with another highlight reel KO. Lewis via KO of RD1

Zane: I’m a little worried that Lewis has lost a touch of the speed that made him so surprising and a touch of the composure that made him so hard to just grind to a decision. That said, while Nascimento is big and tough, he’s not really a powerful guy at 265. And his style of boxing and grinding takedowns is exactly the style that Lewis has been so good at defeating for years and years. Derrick Lewis via KO, round 2.

Tim: I think we are close to Derrick Lewis being spent as an entertaining attraction. But for now, I believe he’s still capable of surviving a long fight and landing a homerun shot towards the end of it. He’s been given a pretty kind match-up here (especially given there are two other heavyweights on this card who I think would give him a very tough time). Nascimento isn’t excellent anywhere and he doesn’t have that stopping power that you need to get past Lewis (even the 39-year-old version). He also isn’t very defensively sound. Hence, Derrick Lewis via KO, round 4.

Nate: The Black Beast still has it. He’ll win here, but he still loses by being in the UFC and not chasing that Francis Ngannou/PFL payday. Lewis by KO, RD 1.

Picking Lewis: Dayne, Stephie, Kristen, Tim, Ben, Nate, Zane
Picking Nascimento: 

Joaquin Buckley vs. Nursulton Ruziboev

Dayne: Buckley is really coming into his own since dropping down to welterweight. He’s no longer being bullied by larger opposition and he’s displaying the fight IQ of a seasoned veteran. It’s not like he’s lost any of his explosion either. However, Ruziboev is a stylistic nightmare for him. Insanely tall at 185, Ruziboev is outright freaky for 170. Ruziboev also has enough experience under his belt that he’s figured out how to use that size to his great advantage. Can Buckley overcome his massive reach disadvantage?

I fear there’s a big chance Ruziboev can pull off the upset, but Buckley has been running on all cylinders and has a huge advantage in overall athleticism. Ruziboev has proven himself to be extremely durable, but I also worry about the quick turnaround in addition to dropping a weight class from where he has been fighting. He has fought at welterweight before, but it’s been several years and weight cuts don’t get easier with age. I think Buckley can put him away, creating a moment of euphoria in his hometown. Buckley via KO of RD2

Zane: I like the adjustments and improvements Buckley has been making lately, but he’s still a fighter who tends to run at a very predictable rhythm throwing one-speed, one power shots dipping in and out of the pocket. Ruziboev is a bit of a can crushing bully, but his game is every bit as predicated on landing sharp counters while back stepping out of the pocket as Buckley’s is landing blitzing punches stepping into it. If that’s the case, given Ruziboev’s height and reach, I gotta go with Nursulton Ruziboev via KO, round 1.

Tim: Ruziboev’s freakish size at welterweight will cause Buckley some issues. I don’t think it’s scientificially possible for Buckley to land a head kick on this guy. I think this could be a fun scrap, with both guys landing big punches. I’m not super confident in the pick, but I’ll go for Buckley and believe he can hurt Ruziboev and avoid the counters. Joaquin Buckley via unanimous decision.

Picking Buckley: Dayne, Stephie, Kristen, Tim, Ben, Nate
Picking Ruziboev: Zane

Alonzo Menifield vs. Carlos Ulberg

Dayne: I keep picking Menifield to lose, only for him to prove me wrong time and again. Despite that, I’m picking against him again. Jimmy Crute proved to be undisciplined. Dustin Jacoby proved to be at an athletic disadvantage, giving up several big moments to the explosive Menifield. Ulberg has proven to be a model of discipline since dropping his UFC debut and he’s a big step up in terms of athleticism in comparison to Jacoby. I’ll acknowledge Menifield has the power to touch up Ulberg’s chin and his fight IQ has gone from a liability to a strength. Despite that, I still say Ulberg’s combination will be enough for him to be the one to keep his undefeated streak alive. Ulberg via decision

Zane: Menifield has the power and the patience to take this fight, but he also tends to eat a whole lot of strikes while trying to stay patient on the back foot. Maybe not a huge deal against a lower power volume guy like Jacoby, or an inconsistent wildman like Crute. But against a very patient, jab focused speed demon like Ulberg? Sounds like a bit of a catastrophe. Carlos Ulberg via KO, round 1.

Tim: I think a lot of Ulberg’s big wins in the UFC look a little drab now, given where those opponents have ended up. That being said, he’s been given another opponent here who is very hittable and willing to enter into the kind of brawls Ulberg can succeed in. I think Menifield has more craft to his game, though. And, in a fire fight, I prefer his chances to select the right shot and land it at the right time. Alonzo Menifield via TKO, round 2.

Picking Menifield: Kristen, Tim, Ben
Picking Ulberg: Dayne, Stephie, Nate, Zane

Diego Ferreira vs. Mateusz Rebecki

Dayne: There’s no doubt Ferreira is coming off the highlight of his career when he blasted Michael Johnson into another dimension to snap a three-fight losing streak, but that doesn’t mean he’s back.