UFC on ESPN: Ribas vs. Namajunas picks and predictions

See who we think will win this weekend in the Octagon.

Will Namajunas fly Air Ribas? Art by Chris Rini

The UFC is back in the APEX this weekend with another one of those cards where it’s really hard to say many nice things about it. It’s pretty clear at this point that the UFC, TKO, ESPN just want to fill programming time and they aren’t too concerned about how many folks are tuning in for this.

I don’t know if that’s because the base level of interest in UFC: Whatever is high enough to satisfy everyone or if there is so much money being made elsewhere that these shows are a total after thought. Either way, we’ve got Amanda Ribas vs. Rose Namajunas as a main event and Karl Williams vs. Justin Tafa as the co-main.

Deeper down the card there are appearances from Billy Quarantillo, Julian Erosa and Mohammed Usman. Will there be fun fights? Maybe. Will you remember any of them this time next year? Probably not.

Do you want to know who we think will win? I hope so.

We, who were once employed by Bloody Elbow, but now hang around here, have looked over these fights and picked who we think will be victorious come Saturday night.

And our motley crew mostly believe that former UFC champ Rose Namajunas still has enough in her locker to fend off the challenge of Amanda Ribas.

To see the rest of our picks, keep scrolling. And please tell us your picks in the comments below.

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Amanda Ribas (+180) vs. Rose Namajunas (-220)

Dayne: This feels like a glorified strawweight contest without the full weight cut. After all, Namajunas ruled over 115 not that long ago and Ribas was talking about her return to 115 right up until the moment his fight was announced. Alas, it is at 125 and I’m curious if that will be enough to motivate Namajunas as the former champion appears to get bored and lose focus. If that happens, Ribas has the talent to put enough of a hurting Namajunas bad enough to put an early end to the fight.

Of course, Ribas also has a tendency to get blasted by those who are more technical and/or athletic than her. Namajunas is definitely more technical, might be more athletic, and certainly isn’t expected to be much smaller than her. Plus, Namajunas has a unique ability to find holes in her opponents heading into their fights and exploiting them. Given Ribas is hardly a defensive savant, I expect Namajunas will do just that. Namajunas via TKO of RD2

Tim: Namajunas is the rightful favourite here. She is the better all round fighter and is a threat to finish with strikes or on the ground. And at 31, she’s not ready for a steep decline in her skills. Despite being the better fighter, I do have reservations around picking her. I don’t know if she can tap into her full potential on any given night, as she seems prone to having “off nights” or making fatal mistakes against opponents she should have little problem against. I think Ribas is capable of seizing on a mistake, but I doubt she could turn that into a winning KO or submission against someone as defensively sound as Namajunas.If Namajunas has an off night here, she probably still has enough about her to get through Ribas (even in a dull fight). Rose Namajunas via decision

Zane: Namajunas may have struggled with Fiorot’s size and power, but I don’t think that’ll be a problem here. And without defense, I can’t see Ribas hanging. Rose Namajunas via TKO, round 4.

Nate: Namajunas has lost her edge and I can see Ribas catching her with an armbar. Amanda Ribas via submission.

Picking Ribas: Kristen, Nate
Picking Namajunas: Dayne*, Evan*, Stephie, Zane, Eddie, Tim

Karl WIlliams (-190) vs. Justin Tafa (+160)

Dayne: Williams is a terrible stylistic matchup for Tafa. Tafa is a dangerous striker, but he has shown one of the worst ground games when he’s been put on his back. I get there’s always the possibility of Tafa catching Williams coming in, but outside of Austen Lane, Williams is easily the best athlete Tafa has faced. Unlike Lane, Williams knows how to get the fight to the mat. That should be enough for Williams to put Tafa on his back… provided he avoids the early finish. Williams via TKO of RD2

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Tim: Justin Tafa is extremely hittable (5.93 strikes absorbed a minute and 49% strike defense). Factor in William’s five inch reach advantage and I don’t see Tafa making it out of the first. Karl Williams via KO, round 1.

Zane: Will be wild if Williams loses this. Karl Williams via TKO, round 1.

Picking Williams: Dayne, Kristen, Nate, Stephie, Zane*, Eddie, Tim*
Picking Tafa: Evan

Edmen Shahbazyan (-210) vs. AJ Dobson (+175)

Dayne: On a card full of hard fights to pick, this is one of the hardest. Shahbazyan is the more skilled fighter, but he also tends to empty his gas tank in a hurry and is left struggling to survive at that point. While Dobson is far from a complete fighter, he is durable and capable of going 15 minutes with minimal trouble. That alone makes him worth strongly considering for the upset as it will be hard to see Shahbazyan securing a decision if he can’t score an early finish. Regardless, I liked the progress I saw in Shahbazyan against Dalcha Lungiambula prior to running into a stylistic nightmare in Anthony Hernandez. If he has continued to progress, he should be able to down Dobson, even as Dobson looked his career best against Tafon Nchukwi. Edmen Shahbazyan via KO of RD1

Zane: Shahbazyan has trouble maintaining composure against aggression, but I doubt Dobson is aggressive enough. Edmen Shahbazyan via TKO round 2.

Tim: I’m not totally confident in Shahbazyan here, but I think his ceiling is still higher than Dobson’s. He’s probably going to get some takedowns here on route to a decision victory. Edmen Shahbazyan via unanimous decision.

Picking Shahbazyan: Dayne, Kristen, Nate, Evan, Stephie, Zane, Eddie, Tim
Picking Dobson:

Payton Talbott (-150) vs. Cameron Saaiman (+125)

Dayne: The UFC thinks it has something special in Talbott. He has a rare combo of size and cardio for 135 and is young enough that he is only beginning to brush the surface of his potential. So… why are they lining him up opposite of Saaiman?