UFC on ESPN: Nicholau vs. Perez picks and predictions

See who we think wins at the UFC APEX this weekend.

Apr 26, 2024

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The UFC is in *checks notes the APEX, again, with another show truly befitting of the arena. The main event for UFC Vegas something something is Matheus Nicolau vs. Alex Perez, with both men hoping they can prove themselves worthy of becoming a fresh option in the flyweight title sweepstakes. The co-main event is Ryan Spann vs. a Bogdan Guskov.

Deeper down the card there are a couple of names that old heads might appreciate. Tim Means is stepping in against Uros Medic and Rani Yahya is going at it with Victor Henry. There are also some hot prospects in the womens’ divisions on show, with Karine Silva getting tested by Ariane Lipski and Ivana Petrovic meeting Na Liang.

We, who used to work together back when Bloody Elbow was worth your attention, have looked over the match-ups and picked who we think will be winners come Saturday night.

You’ll see below that we mostly believe Nicolau is the man who will take a leap forwards in the flyweight division, at the expense of Alex Perez. Dayne and Stephie have made Nicolau their ‘lock’ pick for this event, which means they score ten points if they are correct (scroll all the way to bottom of this post for our leaderboard).

To see the rest of our picks, keep scrolling. And please let us know who you are riding with in the comments.

Matheus Nicolau (-185) vs. Alex Perez (+155)

Chris: There aren’t any major skill, age, or reach discrepancies on paper, but Nicolau has been far more consistent. Perez is full of potential but can’t stay active enough for me to pick him.

Dayne: I anticipate the odds would have been much wider had Perez not had a better than expected showing against Muhammad Mokaev less than two months ago. Regardless, I’d be confident in throwing money on Nicolau if I were a betting man. Nicolau’s only loss in the last five years came at the hands of Brandon Royval, the man who sits pretty firmly as the second best flyweight in the world in the here and now. As for Perez, he still hasn’t won a fight since 2020 and he doesn’t have a single victory over anyone currently on the UFC roster.

There’s always the punchers chance, but Perez hasn’t shown the type of one-punch power that put Nicolau down against Royval… though I acknowledge it was a knee that really did the trick. If this was a three round fight, maybe Perez could press the action and outwork Nicolau over the first two rounds. I don’t see him having the gas tank to effectively put in that type of performance over five rounds. Nicolau can be boring, but he is one of the more intelligent flyweights on the roster. I feel confident he’ll get the job done. Nicolau via TKO of RD4

Zane: If Perez can pressure through the counter shots and start wrestling Nicolau, he might have a path to victory, he’s a very tough fighter to beat if he can stay in the bout. But, he’s also had plenty of trouble before walking into counters and handling solid punchers at a high level. Just seems like too dangerous a problem for Perez to navigate over and over again. Matheus Nicolau via KO, round 2.

Tim: Alex Perez will have the edge when it comes to wrestling here, but I think Matheus Nicolau’s takedown defense will prevent this advantage from being a pivotal factor in their fight. Is Perez struggles to take Nicolau down, which I think he will, we are due for possibly five rounds mostly standing. And Nicolau has shown he has the ability to hurt folks on the feet. We’ve not really seen that from Perez. Matheus Nicolau via TKO, round 4.

Picking Nicolau: Chris, Dayne*, Stephie*, Kristen, Nate, Zane, Tim
Picking Perez: Eddie

Ryan Spann (-185) vs. Bogdan Guskov (+155)

Chris: Never gamble over 170lbs. But I have no faith in Ryan Spann so Bogdan it is.

Dayne: What I need to know is if Spann is mentally wrecked after his back-to-back losses. He doesn’t have a good reason for his loss to a fading Anthony Smith, especially given how bad Smith looked against Khalil Rountree. Spann has always been his own worst enemy and nothing appears to have changed in that regard. Guskov has plenty of power and is a sound athlete, so I can’t discount the chances of him touching up Spann’s chin. Despite that, Spann is one of the best athletes in the division, is a sound technical striker, and has a knack for finding subs, even if it’s usually a club-and-sub. I wouldn’t dare put money on Spann as a 2-to-1 favorite – I can’t trust him – but he should win this. Spann via submission of RD2

Zane: I don’t love putting my faith in Spann, he freezes up in front of opposition way too often for my liking. But he’s big and fast, can land a great 1-2 and has a takedown game that he makes decent use of when the right opponent is in front of him. Guskov should be that opponent. He’s the slicker boxer, but every other part of his game is less developed. Ryan Spann via TKO, round 1.

Tim: Ryann Spann has a lot of size and UFC experience over Bogdan Guskov. I think that’s enough to pick him here in what is a very odd match-up. This co-main screams “here’s two guys” with zero narrative waiting to unfold for us in any scenario. Why isn’t Lipski vs. Silva in this spot? Ryan Spann via TKO, round 1.

Picking Spann: Dayne, Kristen, Nate, Zane, Eddie, Tim
Picking Guskov: Chris, Stephie

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Ariane Lipski (+125) vs. Karine Silva (-150)

Chris: Karine Silva is the future of women’s bantamweight. You heard it here, I’ve seen her throw hands, wreck ligaments, she’s legit.

Dayne: This is my favorite fight on the card. It’s not an easy contest to pick. Silva is one of the hottest new things in a division experiencing a youth movement, having secured submissions within the first round in each of her three UFC wins. It could be argued she is becoming the new Queen of Violence, the moniker that belongs to Lipski. Lipski has begun to fulfill expectations after a disappointing beginning to her UFC career, but it might be time to pass it on to Silva if she replicates her earlier UFC showings.

Lipski is easily the biggest challenge Silva has faced, not to mention the most lethal and stinging striker. If the Lipski we’ve seen over the last three fights shows up, it isn’t hard to see her outpointing Silva on the feet, especially if it gets out of the first round. Lipski’s ground game does have me worried, but I’ve been exceptionally impressed by her poise for the last year. Confidence isn’t something I have in my pick, but I am excited as hell about this fight. Lipski via TKO of RD3

Zane: I feel a bit foolish because I keep picking against Silva and she keeps winning. I just don’t like any part of how her game is built. She’s a fantastic opportunist with a couple very simple striking and wrestling tools, but a really venomous grappling game, even from bad positions. That tends to just get smashed over time in the UFC, but it’s a lot easier to make it work in divisions where fighters don’t wrestle well or finish their opponents. Even still, I really like what Lipski’s been doing lately, when she can stay off the ground. I think she can be a test Silva doesn’t pass, if she fights just the right kind of fight. Ariane Lipski via decision.

Tim: Silva is a scary looking prospect, but I think her strength of schedule has a lot to do with that. With Lipski starting to find her feet against UFC calibre opposition, I think she will be capable of staying out of danger versus Silva and impressing the judges by controlling the striking exchanges. Ariane Lipski via decision

Picking Lipski: Dayne, Kristen, Zane, Eddie, Tim
Picking Silva: Chris, Stephie, Nate

Austen Lane (+225) vs. Jhonata Diniz (-275)

Chris: Austen Lane is snakebit. Once Greg Hardy built his highlight reel off the guy, it was over.

Dayne: Lane has done everything he’s supposed to do to become a heavyweight player following his NFL career. He gained experience. He’s increased his level of competition steadily. He’s even proven he’s capable of coming back from a devastating KO. But the UFC has no interest in giving him a favorable matchup. Don’t get me wrong, he’s at his best striking and Diniz will give him that opportunity. But Diniz is a former professional kickboxer who far exceeds Lane’s prowess on the feet and matches Lane’s reach. I don’t trust Lane can keep Diniz on his back, which would be his surest way to victory outside of catching Diniz. The Brazilian has a successful UFC debut. Diniz via TKO of RD2

Zane: Diniz can brawl, Lane can kick, but he can’t handle himself inside the pocket at all. Jhonata Diniz via KO, round 1.

Tim: I have questions about Lane’s durability. There’s no questions about Diniz’s stopping power. So I think it might be a short and painful night for the former football player. Jhonata Diniz via KO, round 1.

Picking Lane:
Picking Diniz: Chris, Dayne, Stephie, Kristen, Nate, Zane, Eddie, Tim*

Jonathan Pearce (-150) vs. David Onama (+125)

Dayne: Two years ago, I’m picking Pearce with no hesitation. Two years from now, I anticipate I’ll be picking Onama without hesitation in this contest. Right now… that’s tough to say. Onama is an athletic freak who is coming along steadily, but is still prone to mental gaffes. Pearce is generally an overwhelming grinder with a surprisingly deep gas tank given his massive size for the division. Given Onama’s takedown defense has been less than stellar – in fact, I’d say it’s been poor – I’ll go with Pearce, but I’d say this feels more like a pick ‘em than the odds indicate. Pearce via decision

Tim Means (+250) vs. Uros Medic (-320)

Chris: Tim Means is 40 years old and about to square up with a man ten years younger coming off his first loss. It’s gonna be a bad night for one of them.

Dayne: Means is a marvel. He’s creeping up on the ten year anniversary of the beginning of this second stint in the UFC, proving to be the type of fighter the UFC claims exemplifies what the organization represents. He also has 50 career fights under his belt and celebrated his 40th birthday earlier this year. Even if Means is in the top half of the heavier divisions, I still don’t have enough faith to pick someone at that age in this division without a very good reason.

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