UFC Louisville picks and predictions

See who we think will win inside the Octagon this weekend.

Jun 07, 2024

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The UFC is in the KFC Yum! Center in Louisville, KY this weekend for their latest five hour block of content. This edition of their roadshow is headlined by Jared Cannonier vs. Nassourdine Imavov. Those guys are competing for the honour of being left out of the title picture at 185 lbs.

The co-main event for this one sees Dominick Reyes (who desperately needs a win — a theme on this card) facing Dustin Jacoby. Other depresso bouts on the card include Miguel Baeza vs. Punahele Soriano and Andrea Lee vs. Montana De La Rosa.

As always, we friends and associates at The MMA Draw have poured over the match-ups and decided who we think will win these bouts.

In the main event we are unanimous in siding with the slight underdog. We think the +100 Cannonier is too seasoned and too tough an assignment for Imavov. And this is despite Cannonier being 40 years old.

Scroll down for the rest of our picks and please let us know who you are picking in the comments section.

Jared Cannonier (+100) vs. Nassourdine Imavov (-120)

Dayne: I totally understand why Imavov is the favorite. He’s 12 years younger than Cannonier and has made steady improvements in his climb into the middleweight top ten, not to mention that Cannonier is coming off a torn ACL. And yet, I can’t help but think Cannonier is going to pull this off. The heavy-handed former title challenger has been damn near indestructible since moving down to middleweight. Cannonier has also proven he can go five rounds and remain effective. Imavov, while laying a vicious beatdown on Roman Dolidze, lost a lot of effectiveness the deeper the fight went. Plus, even if Imavov jumps ahead like he did against Dolidze, Cannonier proved his resilience against Derek Brunson.

The other thing pushing me in favor of Cannonier is he knows his time is short. He didn’t offer Israel Adesanya much in their title fight and Cannonier has said as much that he blew it. He seems determined to get back there and at his age, he has little room for error. All that said, Cannonier has an aura that says he’s going to succeed here. I’ve been wrong about these hunches before, but I’ve been right more often than I’ve been wrong. Cannonier via decision

Zane: Cannonier only tends to lose to creative strikers that can set & maintain a better pace than him over multiple rounds. That doesn’t feel like Imavov to me. He tends to tire from his own pace and offense, and tends to stick to simple tools he can back up with wrestling. Cannonier is very hard to wrestle.

Tim: I definitely don’t love that Cannonier turned 40 this year. MMA feels like something that should be out of your system by then. However, he certainly doesn’t look and act like most 40 year olds (and I’m not just talking about his social media). He managed to beat Marvin Vettori last year, so I don’t think his age should count too much against him — especially against an opponent who is yet to prove he’s as good as this booking would suggest. I think Cannonier will be able to summon up enough strength, and cardio, to pressure Imavov and smother him against the cage and on the ground. I don’t think Imavov has the kind of striking that can force Cannonier to back off, so I can’t pick him here, even if he is the slight favourite. Jared Cannonier via unanimous decision

Nate: Jared Cannonier has been doing it against the best of the best at middleweight for a while now. Nassourdine Imavov has seen Sean Strickland, but that’s it. I’ll go experience over youth here. Jared Cannonier via TKO

Picking Cannonier: Ben, Dayne, Nate, Kristen, Zane, Stephie, Tim
Picking Imavov:

Dominick Reyes (+190) vs. Dustin Jacoby (-235)

Dayne: I don’t want to completely discount Reyes. This is the same guy whom I believe should have dethroned Jon Jones, though I admit it was a close decision. After that fight, his chin disintegrated, Jan Blachowicz, Jiri Prochazka, and Ryan Spann all putting him away with strikes. Granted, they’re all heavier hitters than Jacoby, but it isn’t like Jacoby isn’t without power. More so than his chin being disintegrated, I’m worried about Reyes having confidence issues. Even if he doesn’t have his lights turned out, is he going to have the confidence to put his chin out there to be tested? If he can’t, it’s doubtful he can score enough offense against a technician like Jacoby. Jacoby via decision

Zane: I’m not picking Reyes to win any UFC fights against decent, principled competition right now. Jacoby may not be a big hitter, but he’s durable and knows how to let his strikes go. Dustin Jacoby via TKO, round 2.

Tim: It’s rare we see someone go out there with a chance to lose five UFC fights in a row. Chins degrade everytime they get struck and Reyes has taken far too much damage in the last few years. If the UFC gave a damn about him (or any fighter, really) he would have been given a chance to rehab his career against a wrestle first opponent. He’s been given a kickboxer here. Dustin Jacoby is not the deadliest striker in the division, but he’s more than capable of finding Reyes’ chin. Personally, I’m praying he ends this with leg kicks, though. Dustin Jacoby via TKO, round 3.

Picking Reyes:
Picking Jacoby: Ben, Dayne, Nate, Kristen, Stephie, Zane, Tim

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Raul Rosas Jr. (-235) vs. Ricky Turcios (+190)

Dayne: I didn’t like Rosas’ chance in Mexico. I just didn’t see the altitude in Mexico City doing him any favors. Now that this has been re-booked at sea level, I think the man-child can get the job done this time around. Turcios just doesn’t seem to have the wrestling or power to threaten Rosas in any serious way provided the youngster can avoid gassing. I would say there’s still a threat of that as Rosas has only gone the distance once in his career. Turcios is durable and can push a heavy pace, but he can also end up punching a lot of air and bounce off his opponent in takedown attempts. Throw in that the UFC wants Rosas to win and I feel good about making him my pick this time around. Rosas via TKO of RD2

Zane: Could be a very competitive fight. Rosas’ game has more holes than hand puppet convention, but my basic feeling is that Turcios is just too slow to keep up with the scrambles and win them. Raul Rosas via submission, round 1.

Tim: Raul Rosas Jr. super prospect buzz might have quietened down a bit. But he’s still got more promise than any TUF winner we’ve seen since Tatiana Suarez won it in 2018 (!). Man, that’s depressing. Don’t watch TUF folks. Turcios’ herky jerky game felt like a guy playing three card monte in his last couple of outings. I don’t see how he can get a decision fighting like that. I do think he’ll succeed in evading Rosas for the fight and avoiding a finish, though. Raul Rosas via unanimous decision

Picking Rosas Jr.: Ben, Dayne, Nate, Kristen, Stephie, Zane, Tim
Picking Turcios:

Bruno Ferreira (-265) vs. Dustin Stoltzfus (+215)

Dayne: I know there’s a ceiling on Ferreira. You don’t continue to score first round KO’s at the highest level of the UFC outside of the heavyweight division. I just don’t know if this is that ceiling. I get that Gregory Rodrigues and maybe Phil Hawes are better fighters than Stoltzfus and Ferreira has already defeated them. But there’s no mystery to Ferreira now and Stoltzfus tends to rely on his wile. Provided he can avoid Ferreira’s power early, I anticipate he should work over the fading Brazilian and probably get a late finish. Stoltzfus via submission of RD3

Julian Marquez (-135) vs. Zachary Reece (+115)

Dayne: I’m amazed the lines are as close as they are. Sure, Reece has an amazingly large frame for middleweight, but he hasn’t beaten anyone of note and was slammed in an embarrassing manner in losing his UFC debut.

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