UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Gaziev staff picks and predictions

See who we think will win in the Octagon on Saturday night.

The big boys are throwing down on Saturday night. Art by Chris Rini.

The UFC returns to the APEX facility this weekend after an exhausting jaunt to the altitudes of Mexico City. It’s a good job this event is happening closer to sea level, since we have heavyweights in the main event.

Jairzinho Rozenstruik gets the call on Saturday night. He’s charged with testing the undefeated Russian Shamil Gaziev. The 12-0 Gaziev makes the main event in only his third ever UFC appearance (counting his debut on the Contender Series).

Our co-main event is an interesting light heavyweight scrap with the undefeated Vitor Petrino meeting the previously highly touted Tyson Pedro. There’s also the undefeated Muhammad Mokaev on the card. He’s testing his perfect record against the very tough Alex Perez. There are two other undefeated fighters appearing this weekend, too. Javid Basharat meets Aiemann Zahabi) and Umar Nurmagomedov welcomes Bekzat Almakhan).

We’ve looked over these match-ups and decided who we think will get their hands raised on Saturday night. As you can see, we are pretty torn on the main event. Our staff is giving the slight edge to Rozenstruik. That might mean we have a close fight on tap in the headline act of UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Gaziev.

Keep scrolling to see all our other picks. And don’t forget to tell us yours in the comments below!

---

---

Jairzinho Rozenstruik vs. Shamil Gaziev

Zane: If I were judging this just by level of competition and potential style clash, I think there’s a pretty strong argument that Jairzinho Rozenstruik should be the favorite here. Gaziev is a bullish, aggressive fighter who likes to strike with reckless abandon and Rozenstruik is almost certainly the best and most dangerous counter-striker he’s ever faced. I won’t be at all surprised if Gaziev rushes out and gets slept like so many past opponents have.

That said, Rozenstruik’s game is also incredibly limited and, in the few times he’s faced really bullish strikers that can punish him, he’s tended to get run over. His tendency to plant his feet and wait for counters doesn’t just leave him open to takedowns, it also leaves him open to getting cracked hard. Throw in the heavyweight division tendency to let fighters go on improbable early career winning streaks, and I’m just going to bank on the new guy getting a huge win. Shamil Gaziev via TKO, round 1.

Tim: Shamil Gaziev is an interesting character in the UFC heavyweight ranks and I think I’ve seen enough of him to think he’s capable of this step up in competition. Though, it’s kind of a step up in name only. I don’t think Rozenstruik is terribly much more skilled than who Gaziev has beaten in the UFC, thus far. Symbolically, though, it’s a big step forward. Gaziev has a size advantage over Rozenstruik, but he’s also just way more active and defensively sound. And I think he’s going to touch up Rozenstruik and get him fading fast. Rozenstruik’s lack of conditioning has me ruling out the chance that Rozenstruik rallies and lands Hail Mary KO at the end here (especially if this thing drags out past three rounds). Shamil Gaziev via TKO, round 2.

Nate: Rozenstruik can crack and he’s going to catch Gaziev storming in. Jairzinho Rozenstruik via KO, round 1

Staff picking Rozenstruik: Dayne, Chris , Nate, Kristen
Staff picking Gaziev: Zane, Stephie, Tim

Vitor Petrino vs. Tyson Pedro

Zane: Tyson Pedro is probably the more technical, well schooled fighter everywhere. These past few years he’s also seemed like a man that’s going through serious confidence and anxiety issues every time he fights if he can’t blitz his opponent early with a massive athletic/skill advantage. Petrino may be more raw, but he also seems like an absolute wrecking machine who doesn’t know what it means to have self doubt. I can see Pedro having early success, but long term I have to favor Petrino’s power and durability. Vitor Petrino via TKO, Round 2.

Tim: I still believe in Tyson Pedro and I think he’ll be buoyed by his win over Anton Turkalj last time out. Vitor Petrino seems a very good fighter. But I think Pedro is more well-rounded and if his mental wobbles are behind him, he’s my pick here. I see him controlling where the fight takes place and doing enough little things to piece together a compelling case for the judges. Tyson Pedro via unanimous decision

Nate: Petrino is on a four fight win streak and just beat the guy Pedro last lost to. Vitor Petrino via TKO, round 3.

---

---

Staff picking Petrino: Dayne, Nate, Zane, Kristen, Stephie
Staff picking Pedro: Chris, Tim

Alex Perez vs. Muhammad Mokaev

Zane: Even more than the Petrino/Pedro fight, this seems like a real ‘headcase/vibes’ kind of matchup. Given what we’ve seen from Mokaev against Elliott and Filho, there’s every reason to believe he could struggle badly against a punishing, physical wrestle-boxer like Perez. He may have some recent losses on his record, but most of the guys that beat Perez are ones that have speed & power parity with him and I’m not convinced Mokaev is that. Most notably, the Dagestani-born Brit’s striking is just nearly nonexistent. If Perez can keep this fight standing he can likely do a lot more damage than anyone Mokaev has ever faced.

That said, Perez has two major concerns: One, he’s something of a front running bully who needs to have complete dominance or he can have the tables turned on him quickly. Two, he’s snakebit to death. This man cannot seem to make it to fight night without injury, weight cut problems, or other random chaos. Add in that Mokaev’s fights have definitely proven him to be a durable, unflappable fighter who doesn’t break to pressure and I think he’ll find a way to turn the tables. Muhammad Mokaev via submission, round 3.

Tim: I think this is really good match-making and a good chance to see what Mokaev is made of. Perez is going to give him the toughest test of his career. But I think Mokaev’s wrestling, boring as it is, is of a high enough calibre that he will be able to bend and not break against Perez. He may get hit and have to dig himself out of a deep guillotine, but I think most this fight happens with him laying on top of Perez. Muhammad Mokaev via unanimous decision.

Nate: Don’t over think it. Mokaev is for real. Muhammad Mokaev via TKO, round 2.

Staff picking Perez:
Staff picking Mokaev: Dayne, Chris, Nate, Zane, Kristen*, Stephie, Tim

Umar Nurmagomedov vs. Bekzat Almakhan

Zane: Outside the grappling and wrestling, the most notable thing to shake out of Umar Nurmagomedov’s UFC career is what an excellent range striker he is. He’s got an excellent jab, mixes targets well, and has a sharp kicking game to go with it. Fighters who can’t compete with Nurmagomedov out at distance find themselves forced to tangle with his takedowns. Unfortunately for Bekzat Almakhan, almost all his offense is based on counter combinations and blitzing flurries. He just doesn’t do much from the edge of range but wait. Sounds like a terrible matchup for him. Umar Nurmagomedov via submission, round 1.