UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Royval 2 staff picks and predictions

Who will win in the Octagon this weekend?

Is a new flyweight rivalry upon us?

The UFC is in Mexico City this weekend, giving back to a market that continues to produce some of the most exciting talents in the promotion. The main and co-main events are re-runs, but that doesn’t matter. The quartet of fighters involve are known to produce action and these match-ups were fire the first time around.

The main event is Brandon Moreno vs. Brandon Royval, with both Brandons eyeing a chance to rematch Alexandre Pantoja for the UFC flyweight title. The co-main is Yair Rodriguez taking on Brian Ortega, with both men thinking this could be their path to Ilia Topuria’s newfound UFC featherweight title.

Outside of those match-ups we also have super prospect Raul Rosas Jr. vs. Ricky Turcios and Yazmin Jauregui vs. Sam Hughes.

As always, we here at Bloody Elbow have been over all the stats, tape and whatnot and picked who we think will win come Saturday night.

And it looks like we are on the side of the Legomaster himself. Brandon Moreno is our unanimous pick to win. To see our other picks for UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Royval 2, scroll down. And please let us know your picks in the comments!

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Brandon Moreno vs. Brandon Royval

Anton Tabuena: Can we stop doing rematches at the top of this division already? It's lazy and too much. Okay I just needed to get that out. As for the fight, Royval will surely make this fun to watch either way, but I just think he'll still be a step behind on most aspects. I think Moreno will be better both with striking and grappling exchanges, and while Royval will remain competitive and find some moments, I'm really going with Brandon Moreno by Decision.

Dayne: We’ve seen this fight before and it ended with Royval separating his shoulder. Thus, I’m more open to the idea that there could be a change in the outcome of this contest from what we saw before. Then again, Royval is stepping in on short notice only about two months after losing to Alexandre Pantoja for the title. Typically, quick turnarounds from a title loss don’t work out very well.

Taking a closer look at these fighters, Moreno is the ultimate survivor of the division. He’s been in there against the best the division has had to offer and has managed to avoid being officially finished. The one finish we do know of came in a TUF exhibition to Pantoja. Moreno may have lost to Pantoja two more times since that time, but he’s managed to avoid being finished. Royval has managed to mature enough that he isn’t completely reliant to on finding a finish to win, but can he supply more consistent offense than Moreno? I don’t see that happening. Moreno via decision

Zane: I get it, Royval got injured, so we MUST see this fight again, right? But injury or no, that fight felt pretty cut and dried the first time through. Moreno was landing the cleaner strikes standing, winning all the scrambles on the mat, and eventually Royval got hurt trying to wild his way out of having his back taken. We just saw Royval in a title fight against a better wrestler and grappler, these aren’t problems he’s fixed at all. Brandon Moreno by submission, Round 2.

Staff picking Moreno: Dayne, Stephie, Kristen, Victor, Evan*, Tim, Zane, Jack*, Anton
Staff picking Royval:

Yair Rodriguez vs. Brian Ortega

Anton: Like Ortega's eagle story, I also don't think it's very realistic to expect him to win here. He doesn't really have good wrestling or even try enough to get it to the mat, and will likely stand with a far superior striker for long stretches again. That really long layoff will likely make that stretch worse for him too. I think this is Yair's fight to lose, and he should be able to dominate on the feet and fend off a few takedowns that will likely come way too late. Yair Rodriguez by TKO.

Dayne: I would love to have a strong grasp of where Ortega’s head is at. Does he still enjoy fighting? It’s well known he has other things he’s more passionate about such as surfing. It’s easy for desire in fighting to deplete when success has been hard to come by. Ortega has only won a single fight since he upended Frankie Edgar in 2018. That single win looks worse in hindsight as the Korean Zombie was past his sell by date in 2020. Long layoffs can kill passion too and we’re creeping up on two years since we last saw Ortega. Plus, having just turned 33, is he on the downside of his career?

I picked Ortega the first time these two met, but I don’t feel comfortable doing so this time around. Regardless of how the first fight ended – was it a freak injury or did Rodriguez legit cause the injury? – Rodriguez was piecing up Ortega on the feet. I get that Ortega’s modus operandi is to lose until he finds the finish, but that only works for so long and it’s been six years since he found a finish. There won’t be any surprise if Ortega finds a finish – especially given Rodriguez’s poor takedown defense – but there’s too many question marks around Ortega for me to feel comfortable picking him. Rodriguez via TKO of RD4

Zane: Brian Ortega probably won’t get finished... probably. He’s always been an intensely tough guy to put away. But it’s a huge red flag that he didn’t do this camp at altitude apparently, especially coming in against a cardio monster like Rodriguez. First time we saw this fight, Rodriguez was landing almost all the better offense, and then he got taken down. Maybe Ortega can do something with that, but he’s mostly been a dangerous guard grappler over his career and Rodriguez has never been subbed. Yair Rodriguez by decision.

Staff picking Rodriguez: Dayne, Stephie, Kristen, Tim, Zane, Jack, Anton*
Staff picking Ortega: Victor, Evan

Daniel Zellhuber vs. Francisco Prado

Dayne: I’m back on the Zellhuber bandwagon. The young Mexican crapped the bed in his UFC debut, but has looked like the wise beyond his years prospect we all thought he was prior to his loss to Trey Ogden. I do believe many are sleeping on Prado, but the Argentine prospect may have a higher upside than Zellhuber thanks to his big advantage in the power department. Of course, the 21-year-old is not nearly as polished as Zellhuber. Zellhuber won’t give Prado the fight Ottman Azaitar did, which means victory will be harder to come by for the younger fighter. Zellhuber via decision

Zane: Prado seems like he has to have a fight in the pocket to get anything done. He’s giving up eight inches of reach here. Daniel Zellhuber by decision.

Staff picking Zellhuber: Dayne*, Stephie*, Kristen, Victor, Evan, Tim, Zane, Jack, Anton
Staff picking Prado:

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Raul Rosas Jr. vs. Ricky Turcios

Anton: I still don't get why they had to sign Rosas as a minor, as he clearly is still way too green and isn't ready even for many low level UFC fighters. He was never an otherworldly uberprospect with overwhelming athleticism and/or credentials — like Bo Nickal or even Aaron Pico previously — so it seems like they just jumped the gun when there was zero need to rush? I don't think he's anything special, and while they're trying to set him up to win against a guy coming off a long layoff, I'm still not sure if he does? I can see it going either way, but I guess he will be bigger and stronger, so maybe Raul Rosas by decision.

Dayne: I’m still not sold on Rosas being a future star. I’m not saying talent isn’t there, but he doesn’t scream as can’t-miss to me. The UFC is attempting to coddle him much in the same way they did Sage Northcutt and we all know how well that worked out. That said, Northcutt still managed a 6-2 UFC record.

Part of the reason I’m not sold on Rosas is I don’t see how he’ll continue to make 135 as he ages. He’s a big dude for the division and he’s not going to have a teenagers metabolism soon. When he’s fighting 145ers, he won’t be able to bully his opponents any longer, something that is key as he’s far from a technical savant. However, Rosas will be able to bully Turcios. I don’t believe Turcios has the power to thwart Rosas’ intentions either. Even if I’m not sold on Rosas yet, he should still win this one. Rosas via decision

Zane: Turcios seems like he’s just too slow and too willing to fight off his back. Rosas is reckless to a fault, so this could be another rookie learning moment, but Turcios isn’t nearly as controlling as Christian Rodriguez. Raul Rosas by TKO, round 1.

Staff picking Rosas Jr.: Dayne, Stephie, Kristen, Victor, Evan, Tim*, Zane, Anton
Staff picking Turcios: Jack

Yazmin Jauregui vs. Sam Hughes

Dayne: I don’t get the odds for this fight. Jauregui is more talented, perhaps more technically skilled too. But Hughes is an absolute dog who will not go away. If Jauregui slows at all due to the altitude or lets Hughes hang around, the American could easily steal this fight. …