UFC Fight Night: Blanchfield vs. Fiorot picks and predictions

See who we think is gonna win on Saturday night.

The UFC is in Atlantic City, New Jersey this weekend with a card that is just too good for the APEX facility, I guess. The main event is an interesting match-up between highly touted flyweights who have never lost under the bright lights. Erin Blanchfield vs. Manon Fiorot is a classic grappler vs. striker match-up which could provide a lot of entertainment (and a title challenger).

The co-main event is unlikely to involve the judges with Vicente Luque set to throw down with Joaquin Buckley. Also on the main card is Chris Weidman, who will hopefully be able to walk away from all this if he’s able to get past Bruno Silva.

We, who used to work at Bloody Elbow before it was sold and is now Bloody Elbow in name only, have looked over the match-ups and picked who we think is going to win.

And, as you can see, we’re pretty torn on who wins this main event. We’re 5-4 in favour of Fiorot. Grappling writer Ben Kohn has picked Blanchfield, though, and made it his ‘lock’ for the event (that’s what the asterisk means).

To see the rest of our picks, including our locks, keep on scrolling. And please tell us your picks in the comments below.

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Erin Blanchfield (-190) vs. Manon Fiorot (+160)

Dayne Fox: I’ve been a major backer of Blanchfield since before she made it to the UFC. It isn’t so much her physical talent that caught my attention, but the impressive fight IQ she had when she was at such a young age. You combine that with the skilled grappling and functional standup and it wasn’t hard to see her rising to the top in short order. It may sound like an insult when I say functional standup, but it has improved since that time, as has the other aspects of her game. She is going to be a future champion.

Fiorot snuck up on me. A converted kickboxer who got a late start in the sport of MMA, I wasn’t sure how she would convert over to the sport when she first signed with the UFC. I quickly changed my mind after her first fight as she pieced up Victoria Leonardo in a brutal manner. Like Blanchfield, Fiorot has continued to improve, even managing to win fights when injury was clearly bothering her.

A lot of what this comes down to is how much each has shored up their weakness. If Blanchfield gets Fiorot to the mat, can Fiorot survive? If Blanchfield opts to stay standing with Fiorot for long periods, how much has her defense improved? Blanchfield ate some heavy shots from Jessica Andrade in their fight before taking down the undersized Andrade. Fiorot may not have the raw power of Andrade, but she is bigger, more defensively conscious of her takedown defense than Andrade, and a far superior technical striker. This is a HARD fight to pick, but I’m going with the upset given fights start on the feet and I anticipate Blanchfield paying a heavy price for her attempted takedowns. Manon Fiorot via decision

Zane Simon: It’s a tough fight to call. Fiorot is more likely to get pushed backwards and end up on her bike, but Blanchfield is much messier and more defensively open. I’ll take Fiorot, just because I don’t think Blanchfield will get easy takedowns. (Check out Zane’s detailed pick breakdowns here)

Tim Bissell: I really like both these fighters and think their ascendencies have really freshened up what was quite a stale division. I think we all know what both fighters’ strengths and weaknesses are here, so the winner will be the one who is able to dictate where this fight takes place. An obvious way to look at this is that each round starts on the feet, so we should give the advantage to the striker Fiorot. And I’m mostly in this camp, but also because Fiorot has shown a lot of talent for being able to stay on her feet and is risk adverse enough to not suffer a rush of blood and dive into a trap. Fiorot’s takedown defense stands at 91%, though she’s not faced an elite takedown artist. Even so, I think she’ll be quick enough on her feet to keep Blanchfield at arm’s length. And at that range she should be able to score enough points to earn a decision. Manon Fiorot via unanimous decision.

Nate Wilcox: I’ll pick the striker to get it done versus the grappler here. Manon Fiorot via unanimous decision.

Picking Blanchfield: Ben*, Kristen, Stephie Evan
Picking  Fiorot: Dayne, Nate, Zane, Eddie, Tim

Vicente Luque (-110) vs. Joaquin Buckley (-110)

Dayne: Even as Luque won his last fight against Rafael dos Anjos, he still didn’t feel like the Luque of old. He fought as though he was acutely aware of his fragility, taking a grounded approach against an undersized dos Anjos. While I acknowledge he needed to tighten up his defense for a long time – not to mention it being a smart approach to that fight – I also take it as a sign of declining confidence. Plus, while he’s traditionally been durable, his loss to Geoff Neal is indicative his iron chin is giving out.

While I’m sticking with the upset pick of Buckley, I fully acknowledge Luque has more ways to win, more tools overall. He’s the better wrestler, better grappler, better boxer… he’s got the check mark in most of the major categories. But Buckley is the more explosive fighter with earth shattering power, not to mention confidence up the wazoo. Even if Luque has more advantages, sometimes all it takes is being superb in one area and the confidence you will succeed in your goal. Buckley passes a declining Luque in the night. Joaquin Buckley via KO of RD2

Zane: A few years back and I’d be picking Luque every time. Won’t be at all surprised if he still smokes Buckley, who has a super predictable rhythm. But Luque also goes to war with every big puncher. Think that costs him here. Joaquin Buckley via KO.

Tim: I worry about Luque’s durability at this point in his career. Buckley is chinny, too, but I think he’ll get to Luque’s chin the quickest. Joaquin Buckley via KO.

Picking  Luque: Ben, Kristen, Evan
Picking Buckley: Dayne, Nate, Zane, Stephie, Eddie, Tim

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Bruno Silva (-235) vs. Chris Weidman (+190)

Dayne: I would love to pick Weidman to have one more winning fight in him. One of the ultimate nice guys in the sport, he has deteriorated so much from when he was the champion that I just can’t do it. Sure, he didn’t look terrible against Brad Tavares – Weidman’s first fight back from his broken leg – but Tavares also wasn’t a guy who was going to test his fragile chin. Silva will. Throw in that Weidman is painfully slow at this point and I’m compelled to pick Silva to put Weidman away. Bruno Silva via KO of RD2

Zane: Sad days. Bruno Silva via KO, round 1.

Eddie Mercado: No USADA Weidman > the field. Chris Weidman by Submission (arm triangle) at 2:42 of round 3

Tim: Bruno Silva has been a bit of a nothing-burger in his USADA hit UFC career. He’s almost on the wrong side of 35 himself, so I don’t see him shellacking Weidman here. I think this will be a dull grinding fight with neither man having enough juice to lay the other one out. I think Weidman might be able to sneak a decision if that happens, but I just can’t pick him given his age, past injuries and past KOs. Bruno Silva by split decision.

Picking Silva: Ben, Dayne, Kristen, Nate, Zane*, Stephie, Evan, Tim
Picking Weidman: Eddie

Nursulton Ruziboaev (-210) vs. Sedrique Dumas (+175)

Dayne: Dumas is easily the more physically gifted competitor. If he ever put everything together, it wouldn’t be a shock to see him become a contender. Too bad it would be a shock to see him put everything together. Dumas can’t get out of his own way, legal problems constantly flaming up. Someone as undisciplined in their personal life is destined to have a limited ceiling. I’m not positive where it is quite yet, but Ruziboev is a young veteran who appears to be peaking at this point. Add in the difficulties in putting him away and I feel confident he can outwit Dumas. Nursulton Ruziboev via submission of RD1

Zane: Two can crushers. I think Dumas is the more crushable. Nursulton Ruziboaev via TKO, round 2.

Tim: Dumas is long, but he doesn’t really do much with it (just 1.88 significant strikes landed per minute and a sub 50% striking accuracy). Ruziboev should be able to get past those long arms and get in close. I don’t see Dumas being able to stop the takedown here and that should mean he’s in for a world of hurt. Nursulton Ruziboaev via TKO.

Picking Ruziboaev: Ben, Dayne, Kristen, Nate, Zane. Stephie, Eddie*, Evan*, Tim*
Picking Dumas:

Bill Algeo (-245) vs. Kyle Nelson (+200)

Dayne: Algeo has really grown on me over the course of his UFC career. I know he’s never going to be a contender, but he’s the type of fighter who will never defeat himself. He’s not going to gas. If you take him down, he’s going to get back up. Good luck submitting him. You’ll need more luck to knock him out. Nelson has progressed to the point I don’t believe he’s undeserving of his roster spot anymore, but he’s the type of fighter the savvy Algeo thrives against. Bill Algeo via decision

Zane: Best time to have this fight. Past versions of Nelson would have got run over. I think he’ll at least survive here, but it’s still a tough fight given his tendency to try and keep an even, unambitious pace. Bill Algeo via decision.

Tim: I think Nelson has been a bit of a weight bully in the past, but against Algeo he’ll be giving up height and reach. If he’s hoping for a fire fight, those factors will count heavily against him. I think this will be one of those “you reach, I teach” kinda deals, with Algeo being patient in the pocket and then maximizing on a hole when he finds it. Bill Algeo via late TKO.

Picking Algeo: Ben, Dayne*, Kristen, Nate, Zane, Stephie, Eddie, Evan
Picking Nelson:

Chidi Njokuani (-140) vs. Rhys McKee (+120)

Dayne: My pick in this contest was completely dependent on the weight class. If it were to take place at middleweight, I’d be picking Njokuani all day. Given it’s at welterweight, I’m going with McKee. Njokuani depletes himself too much for my liking to get to 170. It’s been nearly 8 years since he made the cut down that far. Is it going to be easier for him now that he’s 35?