UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Walker staff picks and predictions
Who will win at the UFC's first ever of 2024?
The UFC is back with its first show of the year… and so are the Bloody Elbow staff picks! That’s right, we are here to put our necks on the line week in and week out picking who we think will win every fight that happens in the UFC Octagon.
This week we are prognosticating over UFC Fight Night: Magomed Ankalaev vs. Johnny Walker 2. The main event is a repeat from a fight a few months back which was called off by a inexperienced and over cautious ringside physician.
Before those two oddballs run it back, there’s also a fire flyweight match-up between Manel Kape and Matheus Nicolau. Deeper on the card we have appearances from Jim Miller and Ricky Simon. All in all, not a bad card to start the year.
The BE staff think the main event will go to the favourite, with Magomed Ankalaev getting near unanimous votes from us. The only hold out is contrarian Blaine, who prevents Ankalaev from receiving the dreaded BE curse.
Scroll down for the rest of our picks and don’t forget to tell us yours in the comments below!
Oh, and by the way, we’re doing things a little different this year. If you see an asterisk (*) next to someone’s name it means they are picking that fighter as their ‘lock of the night’. Most the staff are choosing Ankalaev for that distinction this time around.
Magomed Ankalaev vs. Johnny Walker
Anton Tabuena: Walker has power and athleticism to win any fight, but even as their brief first fight showed, this is a pretty bad match up for him. Magomed Ankalaev by TKO.
Dayne: For a fighter who is considered to be boring, a lot of weird circumstances tend to buzz around Ankalaev. He dominated his his UFC debut, only to literally lose in the final second to a Hail Mary triangle from Paul Craig. There was the odd debacle of his first fight with Ion Cutelaba. His improbable draw against Jan Blachowicz was a bad decision. Now, he is forced to rematch Walker after their first match ends with a boneheaded illegal knee that Walker allegedly couldn’t continue from. We expect weirdness from Walker, but from Ankalaev?
Walker has worked very hard to be a more technical and thoughtful fighter and I think it has benefited him overall. However, if he wants to beat Ankalaev, his best chance is to let his freak flag fly, throw spinning and flying attacks as Ankalaev is likely to have an answer for a more standard attack. He might even have an answer to to the more exotic attacks, but I think that will only result in a replay of their first contest, minus the crap ending. Provided Ankalaev isn’t overly emotional entering the fight, his studious nature should allow for him to find the statement finish he needs to re-enter the title picture. Ankalaev via TKO of RD2
Zane: We may not have seen a lot of this fight the first time around, but we saw enough, IMO. Walker did okay early until Ankalaev really started pressuring him. The moment that happened, he made a big goofy mistake, got taken down, and started getting beat up. Ankalaev just seems too durable and too patient and too consistent for Walker to beat him off low kicks and big wild single moves. Magomed Ankalaev via decision.
Tim: I’m not trying to overthink this one. Magomed Ankalaev is better everywhere so he should win pretty comfortably here. Both he and Johnny Walker are weirdos, though, so I’m not confident enough in the Ankalaev pick to make it my lock. I think there is a slim chance that Walker does something ridiculous and lucks his way into an upset. I also think there’s a slim chance in Ankalaev not turning up and giving this thing away. Despite all that, though, official pick is Magomed Ankalaev via lopsided decision.
Blaine: On paper, Magomed Ankalaev should win this fight. He’s a calm, measured striker who doesn’t make mistakes or over extend himself. He’s a good wrestler and can go to that when he chooses to. But this is Magomed Ankalaev and it is never this straight forward.
Johnny Walker is a long and explosive fighter. While he was getting beat by Ankalaev in the first round, Walker still possessed the ability to change the fight with a single strike.
Magomed Ankalaev seems to have shenanigans in every fight. He dominated Paul Craig in his UFC debut until he lost. The Ion Cutelaba fight robbed him of a full year of his prime. He was on the cusp of being a champion, wrestling Jan Blachowicz to a decision draw. And finally, Johnny Walker’s illegal knee to the “in the desert” fallout.
I know Ankalaev should win the fight. He has every reason to win it and may be the best 205’er in the world. But I have that icky feeling that Johnny Walker is going to do something goofy like the showtime kick and put Ankalaev away. Walker via TKO R3
Staff picking Ankalaev: Tim, Chris*, Steph*, Dayne, Evan, Victor, Jack*, Kristen, Zane*, Eddie*, Anton*
Staff picking Walker: Blaine
Matheus Nicolau vs. Manel Kape
Dayne: We’ve seen this fight before, Nicolau securing a controversial decision victory in the process. Kape appears to have matured and improved since that fight while Nicolau has maintained. That doesn’t necessarily guarantee we’ll have a different outcome. Nicolau has underrated power and Kape could very well end up being over enthusiastic in his pursuit of the finish. After all, he ate more than his fair share of firepower from Felipe dos Santos.
Nope, I’m overthinking it. Kape is the superior athlete, the harder hitter, and the fighter whose career is on the upward trajectory. I get it that anything can happen in MMA, but all the signs point to Kape securing a win and righting what the judges got wrong three years ago. I can’t guarantee it will be a finish, but all of Nicolau’s professional losses have come via KO. Kape wants to make a statement and the guess here is he does so. Kape via KO of RD1
Zane: We did already see this fight, and I know there’s a feeling in the air that Kape has learned and grown since the first time around, but I also just have to wonder if he hasn’t faced any more dedicated counter fighters since that first fight. Nicolau loves to fight off the back foot, Kape the front, but both men would rather throw second than first. I can’t help feeling that Kape is more likely to walk himself onto counters in this fight, and (as we saw the first time) walk himself onto takedowns. Maybe he’ll do enough standing to win, but I’ll pick a repeat of the first performance. Matheus Nicolau via decision.
Tim: Manel Kape has looked great as of late, but I still don’t trust him to get a when it really matters. I think this will be a really fun back and forth fight, but I think Matheus Nicolau will show more guts and will be able to land something or catch something that ends the fight late. Matheus Nicolau via submission.
Staff picking Nicolau: Tim, Zane
Staff picking Kape: Chris, Steph, Dayne, Evan, Victor, Jack, Kristen, Eddie, Blaine, Anton
Jim Miller vs. Gabriel Benitez
Dayne: It’s hard not to root for Miller. As well-liked of a person as the UFC has ever had, he continues to plug along with his lunch pail style, extending his record of appearances every time he steps in the cage. Thus, I need to ask myself: Am I picking him because I want him to win?
It is possible, but I think my attempts to be neutral allow for a valid pick. Benitez’s durability has cratered, resulting in him being finished in two of his last three appearances. It doesn’t help that age has resulted in his slowing metabolism and forcing a move up to 155. In other words, while Miller is usually the smaller guy in the cage, that might not be the case this time around. Miller has also figured out how to manage his stamina more effectively as of late. I think I have good reason to be picking Miller. Miller via submission of RD2
Zane: I have a sinking feeling that Miller is going to get chewed up in middle distance in this fight by a far superior kicker. He’s never been terribly comfortable moving forward and I don’t think he can afford to give ground to Benitez. That said, Benitez is the less durable and less flexible of the two fighters. Mostly, I can see a bout where Benitez starts strong, Miller rallies back, and then we have a very scrappy late round where neither guy clearly wins. Despite my misgivings I’ll take Jim Miller by decision, just because I want to see him get through this and get the chance to compete at UFC 300.
Tim: I think Gabriel Martinez is a spent force and we’ve already seen his ceiling. That’s kind of a gift to Jim Miller, who has had to fight so many guys who might be something one day (but ultimately proved not). Martinez has a striking edge on Miller, but he’s experienced and weathered that (and everything else) before. Martinez’s edge in that department isn’t special enough to seriously trouble Miller, though. Ultimately I think this looks like a lot of other Jim Miller fights, where he absorbs some pressure, quietly implements his game and rides out a victory on a demoralized and dumbfounded foe. Jim Miller via unanimous decision.
Staff picking Miller: Tim, Chris, Steph, Evan, Dayne, Victor, Kristen, Zane, Eddie, Blaine, Anton
Staff picking Benitez: Jack
Ricky Simon vs. Mario Bautista
Dayne: I love this fight, but I hate trying to pick a winner. Bautista is easily the more dynamic of the two, both standing and on the mat. Thus, if there is to be a finish, it’s likely the fight will end in his favor. Unfortunately for him, Simon is difficult to put away. His quick loss to Urijah Faber appears to have been a fluke and he endured a hell of a beating from Song Yadong before the fight was eventually stopped. It’s going to be a hell of a chore for Bautista to get him out of there.
What works against Bautista even more is his willingness to let fighters take him to the mat. Yes, he has a fantastic ground game, but Simon is adept at avoiding submissions and it’s going to look bad for Bautista if Simon is hitting takedown after takedown. Simon’s confidence was shaken at the end of his fight with Song, something that could carry over. Given Simon bounced back as well as he did from the Faber loss, I think he’ll be in the right headspace, fall back on his higher level of experience, and outwork the up-and-comer. Simon via decision
Zane: Call it a vibe, but I really like the work Bautista is doing right now. He seems to have a ton of confidence and calculation in his aggressive, multi-level/multi-layered striking/grappling game. If he can find a lever to break someone, he’ll do everything he can to make use of that lever.
On the flip side, Simon really only tends to have one way he wins, with aggressive wrestling, combined with aggressive pocket punching when he’s allowed to get inside. He’s great at it and I won’t be shocked if it’s enough to get by Bautista, but I also feel like we’ve regularly seen competent high-level opponents put Simon in a position where he can’t set up his shots easily, through pressure and output. It’s a chancy pick, but I think Bautista can be that guy. Mario Bautista via decision.
Tim: I think Ricky Simon’s takedowns will be too much for Mario Bautista to handle and if he gets a little wild on the feet, there’s just going to be more takedowns. Those will add up for the judges and hand Simon the win. Ricky Simon via unanimous decision.
Staff picking Simon: Tim, Chris, Steph, Dayne, Evan, Victor, Jack, Kristen, Eddie, Blaine, Anton
Staff picking Bautista: Zane
Phil Hawes vs. Brunno Ferreira
Dayne: There’s a reason Hawes was once hyped as a future champion in the making. He has the wrestling and athletic chops to climb to the top. What he doesn’t have is the durability to climb that high. I’m not sold on Ferreira’s ability to stop takedowns, meaning I can see Hawes controlling him over the course of 15 minutes, maybe even landing a killshot of his own. Unfortunately for Hawes, I’m not liking the string of KO’s he has suffered. Perhaps Ferreira becomes gun shy himself given he’s coming off his first career KO loss, but I’ll wager he pulls it out. Ferreira via KO of RD1
Victor: Oh… yikes.
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