UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Curtis 2 picks and predictions

See who we are picking to win at the UFC APEX this Saturday.

Wow.

This card…

Yeesh.

The UFC is back in the APEX facility this weekend with perhaps their most APEX-y card we’ve ever seen. The show, which starts at 3 p.m. ET is headlined by a rematch we have all been dying to see; Brendan Allen vs. Chris Curtis. Curtis is filling in on short notice for the injured Marvin Vettori here.

The co-main is Alexander Hernandez vs. Damon Jackson. On the prelims we have Court McGee vs. Alex Morono and Norma Dumont vs. Germaine De Randamie.

We here, former colleagues at Bloody Elbow when that place was worth visiting, have looked over these fights and made our picks.

In the main event we are mostly in agreement that Allen will avenge his loss to Curtis. Evan has gone so far as to make Allen his lock pick (denoted with an *) for this event. Those locks count for 10 points in our internal picking contest. To see the rest of our picks scroll down. And please don’t forget to hit us with your picks in the comments (we still have those here).

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Brendan Allen (-220) vs. Chris Curtis (+180)

Dayne: Allen very much wanted an opportunity to fight up in the rankings, but was willing to take Curtis on short notice in an effort to get his last loss back. Without that loss, Allen would certainly be a larger favorite than he already is. The question is whether or not that loss was a fluke. I don’t think it was… but I also think Allen has improved and Curtis has been figured out.

That isn’t to say Curtis can’t knock Allen’s block off again. Few are better at taking in information and finding just the right punch to end the fight once all that information has been downloaded. Plus, he isn’t easy to get to the ground, the area of the fight where Allen has the biggest advantage. But no one is underestimating him anymore – especially Allen – and there isn’t a lot of variance in Curtis’ game.

What Allen is unlikely to do is give Curtis much space to operate. Curtis is the smaller fighter who is taking the fight on short notice and a grueling clinch battle is likely to wear him down over five rounds. Plus, Allen has shown a vastly improved fight IQ over his last several fights. I think he’ll find ways to get the fight to the mat enough and leave his loss to Sean Strickland as his only unavenged UFC loss. Brendan Allen via decision

Ben: Comes down to whether or not you trust Allen to stick to a game-plan that keeps him out of mid-range exchanges. I can’t really say I trust him to do that in a fight that will likely be contested entirely on the feet. Curtis probably gets a finish here, round 2 or 3. Chris Curtis via KO RD 3. 

Zane: I don’t know how much I buy the narrative that Brendan Allen is just way better now or that Chris Curtis has been figured out in a way that Allen can deal with. Allen has improved with some decision making, but he’s still not an excellent wrestler and his striking defense is bad all over. The last time he faced a striker with a deep technical game? Well, that was Chris Curtis. Maybe he can win this time, Curtis has always been someone that gives away lots of opportunities and Allen had plenty of success the first time around. But if he’s not going to get easy take downs, he’s going to have to do a lot of punching. And if he does that, I think sooner or later he gets cracked. Chris Curtis via TKO, round 3.

Tim: I think this rematch is happening at a great time for Allen. He’s improved during the time since he and Curtis last fought. And Curtis has declined, though not by a ton. The age difference between these two (Allen is eight years younger) may have been an advantage to Curtis when they met three years ago, but now (with Action Man over 36) it’s a detriment. Curtis will have no interest in anything other than a slugging match here and, while I think he can catch Allen again, I doubt he still has enough venom to put him away. I think these two will put on a show, but Curtis will eat more punishment over five rounds and eventually go down late. Brendan Allen via TKO, round 5.

Picking Allen: Dayne, Nate, Kristen, Evan*, Eddie, Tim
Picking Curtis: Stephie, Ben, Zane

Alexander Hernandez (-210) vs. Damon Jackson (+175)

Dayne: Either Hernandez secures an early finish or Jackson manages to outlast Hernandez. This fight is as simple as that. I’m still not crazy about Hernandez moving down to featherweight as I believe it impacts his already questionable gas tank in a negative way. Jackson does look like wear and tear is catching up to his chin, but I believe Hernandez’s power is overhyped. Thus, I’ll favor the aging and crafty Jackson to survive and put away a fading Hernandez late. Damon Jackson via submission of RD3

Zane: The question here is, is Jackson ‘that guy’ enough to beat Alexander Hernandez, because if he wins this, he’d probably be the worst athlete to ever take him out. We all know there’s a path to victory (which I do think Hernandez has worked hard to make more difficult) by putting a pace on Hernandez and breaking him with sheer will and confidence. But that’s a game that Jim Miller, Chris Gruetzmacher, and Mike Breeden all have in their pocket and none of them could get it done. Long story short, if Hernandez is at all more resilient than he used to be, and Jackson is still chinny and lacking in brute strength, I’ll take Hernandez to get the win. Alexander Hernandez via TKO, round 1.

Tim: I think this could be a good battle, particularly on the ground. But I believe in Hernandez’s athleticism and striking more than I believe in Jackson’s veteran savvy. Alexander Hernandez via submission, round 2.

Picking  Hernandez:  Zane, Evan, Eddie, Tim
Picking Jackson: Dayne, Nate, Stephie, Kristen, Ben

Morgan Charriere (-120) vs. Jose Mariscal (+100)

Dayne: Charriere has a limited ceiling. That isn’t to say he’s a finished product by any means, but the reason there hasn’t been much buzz about him is due to that being common knowledge. However, he did spend a lot more time on the regional scene than the typical prospect and came into the UFC far more ready made to go than most. Despite that, Mariscal presents a tricky opponent. If Mariscal is considered to be a prospect, he’s even more limited than Charriere, but he’s probably craftier than Charriere, almost always getting the type of fight he prefers. Regardless, Charriere is more talented and for all his veteran prowess, I doubt Mariscal will throw anything at Charriere the Frenchman hasn’t already seen. Charriere via decision

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Zane: I both think the odds on this fight should be a lot wider, and that there’s a real solid chance for an upset. The truth is, when it comes to speed, power, durability, and technique, Charriere is a big jump above Mariscal. But, he also has a very bad habit of fighting down to the level of his opposition, mostly via a slow paced, reactive game built on defensive mindfulness and exploiting openings. But, that’s been turning to pointed aggression more and more lately. Right now Charriere looks very dangerous. If he doesn’t get a finish, Marsical is such a dedicated scrapper that he very well might take this on pace, but I think this is a fight that Charrier walks away from looking like a true contender. Morgan Charriere via KO, round 1.

Tim: I think Charriere is good, but I am getting some Tom Duquesnoy vibes here. So I’m not sure if this is the European standout prospect the division should be worried about. That being said, I think he has the beating of Chepe Mariscal. Morgan Charriere via TKO, round 2.

Picking Charriere: Dayne, Nate, Kristen*, Zane, Evan, Stephie, Ben, Eddie, Tim*
Picking Mariscal:

Ignacio Bahamondes (-360) vs. Christos Giagos (+270)

Dayne: You’d think the squat fighter who has never missed weight would be the one who doesn’t have to conserve their gas tank. In this case, you’d be wrong. I’m still not positive Bahamondes spends the prime of his career at lightweight, but he’s proven he can go hard for 15 minutes. Giagos hasn’t. I’m not positive Giagos can navigate the long reach of Bahamondes either. Throw in that the only ones in recent years to defeat Bahamondes are more technical strikers who manage to outslick him with angles and openings. Giagos is far from being that type of fighter. Bahamondes via TKO of RD3

Zane: Giagos and Bahamondes are both at their most comfortable as strikers when they can brawl in the pocket. Giagos can chain that with a decent power wrestling game, but he’s rarely ever a lockdown top control fighter, which probably means this fight is going to include a whole lot of swangin’. If that’s the case, Bahamondes is the much more dexterous, confident, and practiced puncher inside. Ignacio Bahmondesvia TKO, round 2.

Picking Bahamondes: Dayne*, Nate, Stephie*, Kristen, Zane*, Evan, Ben*, Eddie*, Tim
Picking Giagos:

Valter Walker (-260) vs. Lucasz Brzeski (+210)

Dayne: I’m not crazy about Walker. I get that he’s Johnny Walker’s brother, but having a talented sibling has hardly been a guarantee for success. Plus, there’s been buzz about Chris Weidman’s revitalized performance coinciding with the UFC no longer partnering with USADA and I can’t help but think Brzeski’s improved physique isn’t due solely to a new diet and training regiment. I don’t think Walker has a chance of turning a real corner until he suffers his first loss. I betting that gets hung on him here. Brzeski via TKO of RD1

Zane: I’m not saying I have high hopes for Walker, but he is absolutely huge and seems like a really phenomenal physical force. All of his game is raw and much of it predicated on whether or not he can get takedowns to soak up round time, but he seems hard to hurt, hard to wear out, and dedicated to wearing on opponents. By comparison, Brzeski got his perfect fight against Martin Buday and couldn’t even get the judges to award him that. There’s just not much power in his game and not enough foot speed to stay away from anyone. I’ll take Valter Walker by decision.

Picking Walker: Zane, Evan, Ben, Eddie, Tim
Picking Brzeski: Dayne, Nate, Stephie, Kristen

Trevor Peek (+150) vs. Charlie Campbell (-180)

Dayne: I was encouraged to hear Peek opted to make his way to a bigger camp. My biggest worry is it will take some time for the effects to kick in, especially given he’ll be operating under the tutelage of Duane Ludwig. Ludwig is a hell of a coach, but it can take a while to feel comfortable in his system. Peek needs a lot of reverse engineering too, swinging the widest punches of anyone on the roster. Campbell may not have the raw power of Peek, but he is far more technical and has enough oomph that I wouldn’t be shocked to see him finish Peek. The guess here is that he more likely delivers enough offense to please the judges. Campbell via decision