Big changes at Saturday’s UFC 311 at the Intuit Dome in Inglewood, California.
Lightweight challenger Arman Tsarukyan is out with an injury he claims he suffered while cutting weight. Brazilian Renato Moicano (+650) is stepping in to face champ Islam Makachev (-1000).
The sudden cancellation added credence to a New York Post report from earlier in the week:
“Tsarukyan created a minor stir earlier this month when a video shared on his YouTube channel had translated his Russian words as saying he was not “100 percent invested” in mixed martial arts, a startling and puzzling revelation for a fighter who meticulously climbed the UFC ranks at 155 pounds since his 2019 promotional debut.”
Additionally, the bantamweight co-main event has been surrounded by rumors and weirdness because champ Merab Dvalishvili (+230) has some visible wounds on his right leg.
California Athletic Commission doctors examined Merabe and debunked rumors that he has a staph infection, rather he’s recovering from surgery on the leg vs. Umar Nurmagomedov (-280)
Since the MMA Draw staff picks went out before the change was made, here are the updated picks for the new headliner.
Islam Makhachev (-1000) vs. Arman Tsarukyan (+250) Renate Moicano (+675)
Miguel Class: What an incredibly sad turn of events. Makhachev vs Tsarukyan was one of the best fights the UFC could make in one of its premier divisions. No other contenders in the top ten seem poised to challenge the reigning champion, including Renato Moicano, who is now replacing the Armenian.
Moicano is a phenomenally skilled fighter with a long-range striking game that serves him well, but his top-position grappling is his most dangerous weapon. But we've already seen him in a short-notice matchup against a southpaw with competent wrestling in former champ Rafael Dos Santos.
Moicano showed his toughness in surviving to the final bell and even getting in some damage in the fifth round, but he was repeatedly taken down, spent several rounds trapped on the bottom, and even nearly got KO'd by an open side head kick. To make matters worse, Moicano is turning 36 this year and has been slowing down, which only exacerbates his durability issues.
As far back as his featherweight fights with Korean Zombie and Jose Aldo we've seen Moicano get hurt and stopped by big counters. Makhachev may not be a dynamite hitter, but he has become a dangerous counterpuncher, as evidenced by the times he hurt Volkanovski in their first fight. And Early Makhachev KO is certainly a possibility. At least Moicano was training to fight a southpaw grappler, so he'll probably be able to land a few jabs and long right hands before Makhachev gets a beat on his timing. What's more likely is that Makhachev patiently pressures Moicano to the fence, takes him down, softens him up with ground and pound, and then submits him. That process may take a few rounds, but it seems somewhat inevitable. Moicano does have some tools that could allow him to manifest a miracle, including anti-wrestling tools like uppercuts and knees as well as a venomous submission attack from the back.
But he's not more dangerous in any of those areas as past opponents like Charles Oliveira, so the chance of an upset is incredibly thin. Late notice replacement fights have a tendency to be weird, but I don't see any reason to expect Moicano to put up much of a challenge. Makhachev by early submission.
Nate Wilcox: I’m picking Makachev but if I were a betting man I’d take Moicano at these odds. He was already training for a fight, he made championship weight with no problem, and neither fighter specifically prepared for the other so a lot of Makachev’s camp advantage is lost. But I expect Makachev by decision.
Picking Makhachev: Stephie Haynes, Blaine Henry, Zane Simon, Miguel Class, Nate Wilcox, Kristen King, Tim Bissell
Picking Moicano: Case Harts (“for the memes”)
The rest of our picks are available here to paying subscribers:
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