UFC 302 picks and predictions
Will it be Makhachev or Poirier? Here's what we think.
The UFC is in New Jersey this weekend with UFC 302. The event touts an undisputed lightweight title fight in the main event slot, with champion Islam Makhachev meeting challenger Dustin Poirier. Makhachev will be keen to prove he’s the real deal, despite his only defenses to date being against a featherweight (albeit a very very very good one). And Poirier will be looking to add a crowning glory to his fabled career as one of the most popular, and violent, fighters we’ve ever seen in the Octagon.
In addition to Makhachev vs. Poirier, we’ve got Sean Strickland vs. Paulo Costa on tap. This match-up of dudes you probably wouldn’t want to be friends with or spend anytime listening to what they have to say is for relevancy in the middleweight division. Either man might end up with another title shot if they put away the other in impressive fashion.
There’s a few other decent scraps on this card, including Randy Brown vs. Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos and Niko Price vs. Alex Morono.
As always, we’ve had a look at these fights and picked who we think are going to win. You can check those below.
It shouldn’t come as a surprise to see that all but one of us believe that Makhachev will defend his title come Saturday night. Kristen is alone in thinking something fun might actually happen at the end of UFC 302.
Keep scrolling to check out the rest of our picks.
Islam Makhachev vs. Dustin Poirier
Dayne: I do everything in my power to be neutral in my preference of fighters. But I can’t deny that Poirier is a beloved figure within the sport that the vast majority of the viewing audience would love to see win this fight. I’m with the majority in this one. But I really don’t think that’s happening.
MMA does have some happy endings. Robbie Lawler. Georges St-Pierre. But their final opponents weren’t at the height of their powers when they faced them. Makhachev never looked more dominant than when he put a beating on Alexander Volkanovski in his most recent contest. As for Poirier, he genuinely looks like he’s near the end of the road. His record may be a respectable 2-2 over his last four given his level of competition, but his two wins saw Poirier losing his fights against Michael Chandler and Benoit Saint-Denis until he wasn’t. Pulling off that sort of comeback against Makhachev would be something akin to Matt Serra’s upset over GSP.
Poirier’s years of hard weight cuts to 145 and the brutal battles at both featherweight and lightweight have taken their toll. This will be his 39th professional contest. He’s also been talking about retirement. That rarely portends well for a fighter’s immediate future. I understand some would say this will be Makhachev’s 27th contest, but Makhachev also employs one of the most defensively minded approaches the sport has ever seen. His body hasn’t accumulated near the damage Poirier is. Given how Poirier has visibly been slowing, it’s hard to believe he’ll catch Makhachev by surprise. Given Poirier hasn’t been able to stop a takedown in recent years, that’s about the only way he can win. I hope it happens, but I don’t expect it. Makhachev via submission of RD2
Ben: Younger, less milage, and seemingly the kryptonite to Dustin stylistically, I'm surprised the odds aren't closer to -1000 for Islam.
A testament to the skills, craft, and effectiveness Dustin displays in the cage.
Despite the odds, Dustin's path to victory is relatively clear. Do damage. Do enough damage on the feet that Islam either 1) is finished or 2) loses the rounds in question. He'll need three of those.
It's hard. Dustin has shown he is still going to make tactical errors in spots that would be catastrophic against Islam.
Islam is fantastic top player. He's very heavy on top, with tight transitions, solid ground striking (used more sparingly than I'd like), and excellent submissions. It's the type of top game that can change a fighters demeanor for the remainder of the fight, and how it's approached.
There is, of course, the closed stance Southpaw matchup dynamic.
Islam is still want to throw himself out of position at times. Catching Islam with a tight right hook as he comes forward is an outcome that would be surprising, but not totally unexpected.
Either way, there's a reason Islam is he favorite. If he wins, it's a good feather in his cap for sure. Dustin winning would be one of the greatest moments in MMA history. But there's a reason people keep saying “imagine if”.
Makhachev by RNC, round 2.
Zane: There’s always a chance that a fighter as dangerous as Poirier can pull out a miracle. But his game has always been a bit about surviving the fire to rise from the ashes. Which is to say Poirier gets hit and hurt and taken down and controlled a whole hell of a lot in his fights, but has a remarkable ability to bounce back from adversity. Thing is, guys like Khabib and Makhachev, they’re not the kind of fighters that let people come back. If Poirier is going to give up a takedown (or jump a guillotine) he’s going to initiate a process through which the fight is taken from him and he never gets it back. Islam Makhachev via submission, round 3.
Tim: I’d really love to see Poirier win this and I know I’m not alone there. However, it just seems that his game does not match-up well with Makhachev. Makhachev should be able to take him down, wear him out and spam submissions until one finally hits. Islam Makhachev via submission, round 3.
Nate: Makhachev is too slick, too brutal and too smart to give Poirier the window he needs to win this one. The man from Dagestan will lay and pray and we’ll hear “And still!” at the end of the night. Islam Makhachev via decision
Picking Makhachev: Ben, Stephie*, Dayne, Zane*, Eddie, Tim, Nate
Picking Poirier: Kristen
Sean Strickland vs. Paulo Costa
Dayne: It’s do-or-die for Costa to establish himself as a genuine middleweight contender. Even though Strickland won the title last year, I still hear many complaining he was undeserving of his title shot. I rarely hear that presented about Costa, but Costa’s was probably less deserving and his performance since then has done nothing to dissuade that idea. This will be the first time since 2017 that Costa has fought more than once in the calendar year too, proving he’s aware of the urgent need for him to get things going. Could that be enough to get Costa over the hump?
Perhaps, but I doubt it. Costa’s power appears to be overstated, securing his last finish six years ago. That includes a fight with Luke Rockhold, making him the only person unable to put away Rockhold over a four fight losing streak for the former middleweight champion that included Rockhold’s BKFC appearance. Strickland’s jab is one of the best in the business and while his chin isn’t indestructible, it does have some durability. Making the fight five rounds generally would improve the chances of Costa catching Strickland, but I think it’s more likely it gives Strickland a better chance given he’s a better round winner and I don’t trust Costa’s ability to be effective over five rounds. This contest isn’t the shoe-in many seem to be making it out to be, but I feel good about it. Strickland via decision
Ben: Costa will eat a lot of jabs but he retains his cardio well. Strickland isn't going to discourage Costa with the jab, and the attritive work of Costa should win him the fight. I expect him to bang the body of Strickland a lot.
Strickland is tough, but he's been hurt before. Costa isn't a one-hitter quitter, but a TKO is an option late. I'll pick Costa by decision.
Zane: I just can’t get over how poorly Costa deals with persistent offense like the jab. Will he have a couple big moments against Strickland? Almost certainly, especially over 5 rounds. Will Strickland get to land his jab at will all night and potentially stop Costa from building any momentum? Also feels pretty certain. Sean Strickland by decision.
Tim: I don’t think Costa has the fight IQ, patience or gameplanning to get through Strickland’s defense. He’ll fight his fight and get his head consistently snapped back on jabs. Then he’ll get frustrated and keep doing what he’s doing, only worse. Strickland should be able to ride out those frustrations and earn a decision win. Sean Strickland via decision.
Picking Strickland: Stephie, Kristen, Dayne, Zane, Eddie, Tim
Picking Costa: Ben, Nate
Kevin Holland vs. Michal Oleksiejczuk
Dayne: Oleksiejczuk made the right move for his overall success in moving down to middleweight, but he keeps running into people he matches up badly against, a theme we’ll see continually through the card. Oleksiejczuk is a talented boxer, but his range is as limited as his athleticism. Holland has both range and athleticism. Perhaps Olekseijczuk can catch Holland’s chin or he secures takedown after takedown on Holland given Holland’s poor takedown defense, but I don’t see him navigating Holland’s range. While I admit that Holland isn’t always focused, his boxing is the most consistent part of his game. This should be an easy win for him. Holland via submission of RD3
Zane: I don’t have any really great vibes about Holland’s return to MW. It feels a bit like he’s been over this whole MMA thing for a couple years and the idea of trying to re-spark his career with another division change doesn’t tell me he’s got a lot of answers. That said, Oleksiejczuk has been very much a front runner in the Octagon who either puts people away early, or fades and starts to make self destructive decisions. Kevin Holland is pretty damn durable. Kevin Holland by decision.
Tim: The match-makers have smiled on Kevin Holland here, giving him a step down in competition. Holland will have the advantage on the feet and that’s the only place this fight will take place. Kevin Holland via decision.
Picking Holland: Kristen, Ben, Dayne, Zane, Eddie*, Stephie, Tim, Nate
Picking Oleksiejczuk:
Jailton Almeida vs. Alexander Romanov
Dayne: Almeida is a nightmare stylistically for Romanov. Romanov is dependent upon being able to dominate his opponents physically and I don’t see him being able to do that to Almeida. Almeida may not be as much of a brute as Romanov, but he is a much more quick burst athlete and does a superior job in conserving his energy. Provided he can survive Romanov’s early onslaught, this will be smooth sailing for Almeida. Given the early finishes have dried up since Romanov’s level of competition has risen, that shouldn’t be too big of a concern. Almeida via TKO of RD3
Zane: I don’t trust Romanov to be in shape and I don’t trust him to handle a whole lot of wrestling without getting tired. Jailton Almeida via decision.
Tim: I’m picking Almeida here, but I think it’s a closer fight than our picks (and the odds) would suggest. I think Almeida might struggle to take Romanov down. And I think Romanov might elect to not try and take Almeida down. That will leave us with a pretty dull kickboxing match. I think the more athletic Almeida will look better in those striking exchanges and then edge out on the judges’ scorecards. Jailton Almeida via decision.
Picking Almeida: Stephie, Kristen, Ben, Dayne*, Zane, Eddie, Tim, Nate
Picking Romanov:
Randy Brown vs. Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos
Dayne: There aren’t many fights on this card where the betting lines are reasonably close, but this contest is rightfully one of the few. Dos Santos has managed to defy Father Time better than I expected, securing a draw against an opponent who appeared to be a stylistic nightmare for him in Rinat Fakhretdinov. As for Brown, every time it appears he’s ready for a breakout, he suffers some sort of setback, sometimes even looking mediocre in victory. And yet…
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