UFC 301 picks and predictions

Check out who we think will win in Rio this weekend.

Thrill and Agony by Chris Rini.

The UFC heads to one of the spiritual homes of mixed martial arts this weekend with UFC 301. In Rio de Janeiro, the richest fight company on earth will produce a Brazil vs. the World showcase with a UFC flyweight title fight in the main event slot.

That title fight sees Alexandre Pantoja defending his recently won crown against the rather unassuming Aussie, Steve Erceg. Erceg comes in ranked only 10th in the division and with just three UFC appearances under his belt. Pantoja has fought everyone at this weight, but is getting a little long in the tooth.

Speaking of long in the tooth, the co-main event features Jose Aldo who has served us a Kristen Wiig stlye ‘just kidding’ on his MMA retirement. The Hall of Famer will meet tough ranked bantamweight Jonathan Martinez.

Still speaking of long in the tooth, we’ve also got Anthony Smith facing Vitor Petrino on the main card.

Us folks who have remained pals despite the implosion of our once beloved Bloody Elbow have looked over the fights and picked out who we think will get their hands raised in the Farmasi Arena. And we’re pretty split on who takes it in the main event, with four of us thinking we’ll here “And new” versus three of us expecting “And still”.

You can check out the rest of our picks below. And please tell us what you’re thinking in the comments!

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Alexandre Pantoja vs. Steve Erceg

Dayne: I agree with most that Pantoja isn’t set up to have a memorably long title run. Unfortunately for him, he didn’t get his shot at the title until he was 33 with 30 fights under his belt. At flyweight, that’s a point when most in the division have begun to decline. Plus, while he fought intelligent fights to win the title and defend it, he didn’t provide performances that indicate he would be someone establishing a long hold over the belt. So it’s only natural to believe he’s going to drop the belt sooner rather than later.

While I generally agree with that sentiment, I don’t believe Erceg is the one to dethrone him. Erceg does have a few things going for him. He’s massive for the division. He’s technical, smart, and has underrated power and impressive durability. However, he’s also making a HUGE leap up in competition. Dealing with that in addition to a hostile crowd and potentially going five rounds is a LOT to deal with.

I get it. Upsets happen. Matt Serra dethroned Georges St-Pierre. Julianna Pena upended Amanda Nunes. But what made those special is the fact they are so rare. Plus, they tend to come out of nowhere. I’ve seen way too many jumping on the Erceg bandwagon over this week for me to claim it would be out of nowhere. Erceg’s toughness should at least allow for it to be an entertaining scrap, but Pantoja has the majority of the physical advantages and at least have of the intangible ones too. Pantoja via decision

Zane: What the hell, something about Erceg’s range maintenance and pressure counterpunching behind a lot of solid distance management tools really speaks to me. And I’d be lying if I said I’ve been really impressed by Pantoja’s title run. He seems to be fighting on fumes after the 2nd round every time and it’s really only Brandon Royval’s complete lack of a wrestling game that saw him pick up that last win. I’ll go with the upset, Steve Erceg by decision.

Tim: I like Erceg’s game, but I just can’t pick him against someone who has been tested so many times against the best flyweights in the sport. Erceg has looked great, but the strength of schedule is a big deal for me here. I obviously think he has a chance, but I think the most likely outcome is that Pantoja is able to win a gruelling battle over five rounds, taking Erceg’s best shots, but doing more across all dimensions of the fight game to earn the judges’ approval. Alexandre Pantoja via unanimous decision

Eddie: Having your gas tank abandon you at flyweight is synonymous with having your chin go at heavyweight. It’s a death sentence, you can’t fix it, and it’s going to cost you. That’s my read for this fight.

Picking Pantoja: Tim, Dayne, Kristen,
Picking Erceg: Stephie, Nate, Zane, Eddie

Jonathan Martinez vs. Jose Aldo

Dayne: I really want to pick the King of Rio. He’s an all-time great who defied the odds in a major way when he moved down to bantamweight in the first place. Plus, while everyone loves to talk about his leg kicks and his defensive prowess, he’s also proven to be one of the more intelligent fighters in the history of the sport. Remember how he managed to ride the back of Marlon Vera to victory? He’s also coming off close to two years away from the sport at the age of 37. Did I mention MMA is a cruel sport too?