UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill picks and predictions

Check out who we think will win at this marquee event.

We finally made it. After Lord knows how many so-so and unappealing cards, the UFC has finally given us something that is compelling from top to bottom. The card is a far cry from what we were given at UFC 200 and UFC 100, but compared to the last couple of years it’s a godsend.

The main event Dana White teased never came about. He’s lying if he says Alex Pereira vs. Jamahal Hill was the fight he wanted for this slot all along. Even so, Pereira vs. Hill is an intriguing match-up for the UFC light heavyweight title. The co-main sees Zhang Weili face her compatriot Yan Xiaonan with her UFC strawweight title on the line. We also have the so-called BMF title on the line with Max Holloway vs. Justin Gaethje.

There are banger match-ups across the card, many of which are too grand to headline APEX cards. There’s Deiveson Figueiredo vs. Cody Garbrandt, Holly Holm vs. Kayla Harrison and Charles Oliveira vs. Arman Tsarukyan to name just a few.

As always, us who used to work at Bloody Elbow, have looked over the match-ups and have made our selections. Check below to see who we think will win each of these match-ups. Pay special attention to picks marked with an asterisk, those are our ‘lock picks’. They count for extra points in our picks leaderboard.

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Alex Pereira (-130) vs. Jamahal Hill (+110)

Chris: Everything over 170lbs is gambling suicide, so take zero stock in my words. That said, I went back over the resumes of each man and even though Pereira’s UFC run has been short, the quality of his wins are head and shoulders above Jamahal Hill’s. On top of that, Hill’s health and elite level skill is an unknown quantities. Pereira for all his lack of experience on the ground seems unlikely to be tested, and that’s enough for me to make him my pick.

Dayne: Hill should be a stylistic nightmare for Pereira. He’s got a similarly lengthy frame, is a far greater quick-twitch athlete, and has proven difficult to take down. Unfortunately, Hill is coming off a very serious injury, a torn achilles. He is fortunate to live in a day and age where a torn achilles generally doesn’t end a career, but achilles repair still isn’t quite where knee surgeries are. I’ve heard many declare the same doctor who repaired Kobe Bryant’s achilles has signed off on Hill’s recovery, but Kobe was also never the same after his injury.

I can’t help but feel Hill’s confidence will be a detriment to him this time around. I don’t believe he’s paying Pereira the type of respect he deserves given his lengthy striking experience. Sure, Hill was able to walk all over an aged Glover Teixeira, but he’s going to have issues dealing with Pereira’s length, not to mention Pereira’s sixth sense in the striking game that only years of experience can develop. Even if the public was somewhat letdown over this contest being the main event, it is a fantastic contest, one that I would have rather seen after Hill proved he’s fully healed. As it is, I can’t feel comfortable picking him. Pereira via KO of RD2

Zane: Jamahal Hill has the size and speed and power to find the gaps in Pereira’s offense, but the technique is so limited and the ideas are so one-note that it’s hard not to see the Brazilian knocking him out. There’s a sequence in his fight with Texeira where Hill threw the same rear-hand uppercut 4x in a row, I don’t think any landed. If he does that here, Pereira will knock him cold. Alex Pereira via KO, round 1.

Tim: I like Pereira at this weigh class and I can ignore his age for another year. If Hill wasn’t coming off an injury lay-off, I might have picked him for the upset here. But as things stand, I think Pereira will win an ugly clinch battle and land lots of thudding shots to the body and temple. I think Hill will stay standing, but those shots will have the judges’ tongues wagging. Alex Pereira via unanimous decision.

Nate: Pereira is too powerful for Hill. He’ll knock him out in two. Alex Pereira via TKO.

Picking Pereira: Tim, Ben, Chris, Nate, Dayne, Kristen, Eddie, Evan, Zane
Picking Hill: Stephie

Zhang Weili (-525) vs. Yan Xiaonan (+360)

Chris: We’re living in the Zhang era, her resilience is exceptional. After three brutal outings where she went 1-2 and left a piece of herself in the octagon, Zhang has been as close to perfect as a fighter can ever hope to be. She obliterated Joanna Champion, then borderline humiliated Carla Esparza and Amanda Lemos, and I don’t expect her to have lost any momentum. Yan by contrast has made it to this fight by eking out a decision against Mackenzie Dern and lighting up a declining Jessica Andrade. It’s not even close. 

Dayne: This isn’t a bad fight. It’s just getting lost in the shuffle of everything, in part because everyone expects Zhang to dominate Yan. That’s largely because it’s hard to find an area Yan is definitively better than Zhang. Yan does everything relatively well; Zhang just happens to do everything a little bit better. Throw in that Zhang has far more experience under the spotlight – thus, she’ll be far more comfortable under the bright lights – and it doesn’t feel like this fight needs much more breaking down. I hope this is a competitive fight, but I fear we’ll get a fight more akin to Zhang’s last defense in which she dominated Amanda Lemos. Zhang via TKO of RD3

Zane: If Zhang can’t get and maintain easy takedowns, then this fight becomes very difficult to call. For all her grit and persistence standing, Zhang isn’t a thoughtful or defensive striker. She tends to just go for broke and see what happens. Increasingly, since her KO loss, that’s also meant she wrestles a lot more. If Yan can stay upright, she may very well land the harder, cleaner shots. Still, that’s all a big ‘if’. Zhang Weili via decision.

Tim: If Bo Nickal wasn’t being fed a can, this would be my lock of the night. Zhang is more dangerous on the feet and her wrestling is leagues beyond Yan’s. Zhang Weili via TKO.

Picking Zhang: Tim, Ben* Chris*, Nate, Dayne, Kristen, Eddie, Evan*, Zane, Stephie
Picking Yan: 

Justin Gaethje (-160) vs. Max Holloway (+135)

Chris: A calm and calculating Justin Gaethje is the most lethal striker I’ve ever seen in the UFC’s lightweight division. It’s a shame he doesn’t believe in BJJ, because who knows what heights the man might achieve. Max Holloway is one of the most legendary strikers the sport has seen and this is a crossroads moment for the Hawaiian. He’s proven that he isn’t ready to be put out to pasture by dispatching three title prospects, but the mileage and size differential combined with Holloway’s propensity to eat strikes won’t allow me to pick him. I believe a focused Gaethje gets the job done, possibly even finishing Max. 

Dayne: Over three rounds, I’m picking Gaethje, hands down. He has a power advantage, is the superior wrestler, and – in my opinion – has an ever so slight edge in the grit. Over five rounds, I’m not so sure. Holloway has proven to be one of the most durable fighters in the history of the sport, never having been KO’d despite facing a who’s who in terms of the greatest featherweights of this and the previous generation. Granted, there is some concern about his ability to take the power of Gaethje, not to mention Gaethje’s vicious low kicks eating away at the base of Holloway.

However, while low kicks are certain to land for Gaethje, Holloway has proven able to withstand a consistent attack on the legs. Plus, Holloway withstood and managed to be competitive to the end with Dustin Poirier five years ago. This time around, Holloway appears to be putting on the right type of weight for his venture to 155. Plus, Holloway builds. Gaethje tends to fade. I acknowledge Gaethje isn’t the same guy who faded down the stretch against Eddie Alvarez or Dustin Poirier all those years ago, but he does tend to suck wind late. I’m not saying he doesn’t push past his exhaustion, but I expect Holloway lay the punishment on thick and either take a late finish or steal the final rounds for a competitive decision. Holloway via TKO of RD5

Zane: Past versions of Gaethje would be very open to Max Holloway’s best work. The old, swang-n-bang version left a ton of defensive openings. The more cautious back foot Gaethje of recent years would have given Holloway a ton of room to build momentum. But the man who just iced Dustin Poirier? That’s the most balanced and strategic version of Gaethje I’ve ever seen. A fighter capable of landing big shots, pulling himself back out of harm, and waiting on counters. Give the huge power edge he’ll enjoy as well, I can’t help feeling Max will do well to keep pace, but also eat the bigger shots and never be able to build his trademark momentum, much like happened against Poirier last time he went to 155. Justin Gaethje via decision.

Tim: You have to stop Gaethje to beat him. And Holloway doesn’t have the pop to end this fight inside the distance. I think Holloway will make Gaethje miss a bunch in the early rounds, but over five rounds (since this is the BMF title after all), Gaethje is going to land something hard. Holloway is way too tough for his own good, so I see Gaethje rocking him a few times without actually putting him away. Those shots will serve to drain Holloway of any venom he might have in his hands and that could leave to a sad two or three rounds on the tail end of this one. Justin Gaethje via unanimous decision.

Picking Gaethje: Tim, Ben, Nate, Chris, Kristen, Eddie, Evan, Zane, Stephie
Picking Holloway: Dayne

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Charles Oliveira (+180) vs. Arman Tsarukyan (-220)

Dayne: Until proven otherwise, Oliveira is the greatest threat to end a fight at any point. He has developed incredible power in addition to being the greatest submission threat in the history of the organization. He’s got the record for the most submissions in the UFC on his resume to prove it. I get that Tsarukyan hasn’t been finished in the UFC – and not since his second professional fight – but that doesn’t matter. Oliveira has proven he can finish anyone in just about any way.

All that said, I understand where Tsarukyan is the favorite. He’s the more consistent minute winner, but attempting to entangle Oliveira is playing with fire. Given Tsarukyan’s bread and butter is on the mat, that’s a risky proposition. And while Tsarukyan is probably most like Islam Makhachev compared to anyone else on the active roster, Tsarukyan hasn’t secured a submission since 2017. Why is that relevant? Makhachev, the only person to beat Oliveira since 2017, managed to submit Oliveira rather than hope to outpoint the dangerous Brazilian. Doing so would likely result in Oliveira eventually finding a finish. Did I mention Makhachev had four submission wins since 2017 leading into his win over Oliveira? I don’t trust Tsarukyan’s track record. Oliveira via TKO of RD2

Chris: I’m a total mark for Arman Tsarukyan because of the Gamrot fight. On top of that, whenever a tactician goes up against an unorthodox fighter I pick the tactician. While that’s not exactly the dynamic here, Charles Oliveira  is always a wild card in pre fight analysis. Will he remain disciplined? Will he pull guard on a strong grappler? Will he throw jumping knees? Only one of those need to go wrong for Arman to capitalize.

Zane: Charles Oliveira will give Tsarukyan ever opportunity he needs to start winning this fight out of the gate and event to finish it early. It’s up to Tsarukyan to prove he believes in his chin and in his ground game enough to take those chances. Frankly, the way he’s been fighting lately, I think Tsarukyan is that guy right now. Arman Tsarukyan via TKO, round 2.

Tim: I think Charles Oliveira is just beyond Armen Tsarukyan at this point in both their careers. If this fight happened a year from now (or maybe even six months) I don’t think that would be the case. But as it is, I think Chucky Olives will get the win and muck things up in the lightweight title race. Charles Oliveira via submission.

Picking Oliveira: Tim, Ben, Nate, Dayne, Kristen, Evan
Picking Tsarukyan: Chris, Eddie, Zane, Stephie

Bo Nickal (-2500) vs. Cody Brundage (+1000)

Dayne: I understand the idea of bringing Nickal along slowly. Hell, I even agree with it. But Brundage is about a small of a step up as the UFC can get for him in going from the likes of Jamie Pickett and Val Woodburn. I get that Brundage has a respectable 4-4 UFC record, but luck has smiled upon Brundage in way few can claim. MMA is a sport in which anything can happen, so I wouldn’t guarantee a Nickal victory in the same way as birth, death, and taxes, but it’s about as close to a guarantee as we’ll get in this sport. Nickal via TKO of RD1

Zane: Cody Brundage is a step up for Bo Nickal considering who he’s been fighting. But it’s not a big step up. Bo Nickal via submission, round 1.

Nate: Don’t over think it. Nickal mops the flow with Brundage. Bo Nickal via submission.

Picking Nickal: Tim*, Ben, Nate, Dayne* Chris, Kristen*, Eddie*, Evan, Zane*, Stephie*
Picking Brundage:

Jiri Prochazka (-105) vs. Aleksandar Rakic (-115)

Dayne: I agree with the oddsmakers that Rakic is being underrated by the general public, but making him the favorite against the former champion? Particularly when Rakic is coming off a long layoff due to a torn ACL? That doesn’t seem right. Perhaps if Rakic was a nightmare stylistically, but I’m not sure there is anyone in particular that qualifies for that against Prochazka. The rangy Czech’s unique approach, lanky frame, and iron chin makes him a unique creature in a sport that’s still evolving. Granted, the more film on Prochazka, the more he’s exposed. Not that there wasn’t film on him from Rizin, but he wasn’t being taken as seriously as he should have been upon his UFC entry.