UFC 299 staff picks and predictions: Sean O'Malley vs. Marlon Vera 2 is tough to call!

Will it be 'Suga' or 'Chito' who gets their hand raised in the Octagon this Saturday?

The Suga Show by Chris Rini.

The UFC rumbles down to Florida this weekend with a stacked card (for a change). And we here at… well, not Bloody Elbow anymore… are still here to give you our takes on who is going to win. That’s right, the name has changed (after being purchased by some folks who want to do very un-Bloody Elbow things with it), but many of us are still here.

And we’re watching UFC 299 this week as Sean O’Malley stakes his UFC bantamweight title against Marlon Vera, the man who handed him his first and only L.

The amazingly stacked card, which happens on my birthday (buy a substack subscription as a present please), features Dustin Poirier vs. Benoit Saint-Denis, Kevin Holland vs. Michael ‘Venom’ Page, Gilbert Burns vs. Jack Della Maddalena and Petr Yan vs. Song Yadong. How good is that? Probably worth the price they’re charging for these things nowadays.

The prelims have some decent offerings, too, notably with Mateusz Gamrot vs. Rafael dos Anjos and Curtis Blaydes vs. Jailton Almeida.

Our crew of now (sadly) former BE staffers have poured over the records, the tape, the odds, the chicken bones and whatever else they use to make prognostications. And…. as you can see, we’re pretty split on the main event.

Plenty of us think ‘Suga’ will get his hand raised and avenge that loss over ‘Chito’. But plenty others think Vera is taking the title home for Ecuador. Hopefully this means we have a close and exciting fight on our hands.

Scroll down for the rest of our picks below. And please let us know who you are picking in the comments below.

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Sean O’Malley vs. Marlon Vera

Blaine Henry: Sean O’Malley has pink shorts now. So he’s for sure going to win, right? Also if he just hits the body of Vera, he could have a fairly good night. Vera will drop his hands as he did with Aldo and Sandhagen and when O’Malley finds those over extended positions he puts people out unless they have green hair. Sean O’Malley via decision 

Dayne Fox: Vera is a unique case. There may not be a fighter more dependent upon their combination of durability and ability to produce big moments than him. That tends to work well on the regional scene with limited success in the highest of levels. And yet, here he is fighting for the UFC bantamweight title against a guy who he has a previous victory over.

Unlike many of O’Malley’s believers – and those are plentiful – I don’t think Vera’s victory was a fluke. That was also almost four years ago. Both fighters have grown since then, O’Malley’s progress being far more extensive. I do believe Vera is better, but he’s still so dependent upon the finish or big moment that I don’t trust he can outwork O’Malley. The same thing could happen in the first fight where he finds a finish, but O’Malley’s durability isn’t the same question mark it was at the time – he’s been in a war with Petr Yan – and I’m not sure Vera will find the same level of luck this time around.

Most convincing, the UFC is trying to build up O’Malley. They got what they wanted when he became champion, now they want his legacy to be burnished. Vera is less deserving than at least three other fighters of the title shot (former champion Aljamain Sterling, Merab Dvalishvili, and Cory Sandhagen), but he got the nod anyway. Don’t get me wrong, Vera can win this; his explosiveness keeps him in striking distance in any fight. But O’Malley is one of the few who is longer and lankier than Vera and he’s better at managing distance than Vera on a consistent basis. O’Malley finds success in his first title defense. O’Malley via decision

Chris Rini: This is really difficult to call. It’s easy to see O’Malley sniping Chito throughout the first two rounds, but finishing him? That’s harder to believe. Vera really let me down in his Sandhagen performance but I wonder how much of that was a psychological hurdle. Sandhagen is a real martial artist who doesn’t inspire enmity in his opponents whereas O’Malley is a natural antagonist. On top of that, Chito has a 75% finishing rate, far above the UFC average. Given five rounds, the motivation of a rivalry, and O’Malley’s lack of a wrestling attack, I think Ecuador will have its first champ. 

Victor Rodriguez: I’m fighting that urge of picking Sean here, because he’s clearly improved since their last outing. I know he’s got more accurate striking and is only getting better at dismantling the offense of his opponents. Sean should win, but Vera’s clinch and BJJ game are still going to be a problem. Cardio will be a problem for Vera, and I wonder if he can keep a consistent pace or just not run out of weapons with his offense. But I trust him and his work with Parillo to get this done, even if it’s a tall order. Marlon Vera by submission.

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Zane Simon: I really don’t like Vera’s game for high level, elite competition. His tendency to be a reactive, low output, power threat puts him in a chancy position of having to rely on his fight finishing ability. Against top tier opposition that’s a hell of an ask. That said, there are still a lot of questions to be asked of Sean O’Malley as a championship fighter. He’s tough, and he rallies well, but we’ve never seen him have to fight into the 4th round, and he’s had to deal with a lot more injury trouble in his career. Vera, on the the other hand, is a near unbreakable tank who only tends to get better as fights go on. His game is all about finding timing and rhythm, and the more chances he gets, the better he does. It could be that O’Malley just outpoints him, or becomes the first man to knock him out. But over 5 rounds, I have more faith that Vera’s durability will see him through and that O’Malley’s past injury woes are a bigger liability. Marlon Vera via TKO, round 4.

Tim Bissell: For all his posturing, Sean O’Malley is pretty good at sticking to his game-planning and fighting with control and composure. Marlon Vera seems a lot more likely to get distracted and sucked into someone else’s game or show frustration when things aren’t going his way. He’s still a very good fighter and those tendencies haven’t really cost him yet. But in a close fight like this, you have to consider marginal differences. I know Vera has the win over O’Malley in the past, but O’Malley has really developed since then, I think, in part, due to his strength of schedule since they first met. Vera has fought killers, too, but again, we’re talking marginal differences here. I don’t think O’Malley will blow through Vera, but I do think the longer they fight the more likely it will be that O’Malley catches him with something crisp. Sean O’Malley via TKO, round 4.

Nate Wilcox: O’Malley has range and power. That’s a deadly combination, even without the Dana White privilege. Sean O’Malley via TKO, round 5.

Staff picking O’Malley: Nate, Stephie, Blaine*, Dayne, Evan, Tim
Staff picking Vera: Kristen, Chris, Victor, Zane

Dustin Poirier vs. Benoit Saint Denis

Blaine: Benoit Saint-Denis is a southpaw who relies on the open side body kick against orthodox opponents. Dustin Poirier is a southpaw so that kick isn’t there. I’m going with the experience here. Dustin Poirier via round 4 TKO.

Dayne: At first glance, this is an obvious pick. Poirier has been a top lightweight for about seven years with an impressive list of scalps on his ledger. While Saint-Denis has been impressive as hell, he also hasn’t faced anyone near the level of Poirier. In fact, Poirier is a huge step up from the likes of Matt Frevola and Thiago Moises. Given Poirier’s grit and ability to pull out a win in hairy circumstances, it feels like it should be an obvious choice, especially given it’s a five round fight.

And then a little bit more thought entered my brain. Seven years is a long time to be near the top of a division. How much wear has he taken? He also had a lengthy period where he was a top flight featherweight. How much damage did those extreme weight cuts do to his body? Plus, there’s an asterisk of sorts around his last four victories. Conor McGregor has only one a single fight since 2016. How much stock can we put in those victories? Dan Hooker has proven he’s roughly a top ten lightweight… which is roughly where Saint-Denis is in the official rankings. He dragged Poirier into deep waters and that was four years ago. And then Poirier needed a Hail Mary in the final round to beat Michael Chandler.

Given it’s going to be exceptionally difficult for Poirier to get a crack at the lightweight title at this juncture, I also question his motivation. He has undoubtedly been fighting to be the best and he may not ultimately achieve that goal. He’s appears to be more concerned about ensuring he gets what he’s worth as opposed to proving a point against Saint-Denis. I don’t blame him one bit – I’d do the same thing – but it’s a sign fighting isn’t his number one priority anymore. For his overall quality of life, that’s a good sign. For his fighting career, not so much. Throw in Saint-Denis’ hunger and obvious physical talents and I think it’s a passing of the torch. Saint-Denis via TKO of RD3

Victor: Benoit got a lot of raw skill and some refinement and polish in his game. He’s clearly the future, and he’s ready for this matchup. Dustin may be fading, but I still trust his veteran savvy and crafty boxing to pull ahead and not get lulled into exchanges that won’t favor him. Dustin Poirier by decision. 

Zane: This could be a major passing of the torch moment for Dustin Poirier. I’m not all that convinced that BSD is technically better than him anywhere, but he’s a big, bulldozer of a lightweight and an absolutely fearless fighter. Chances for some major Whittaker/Du Plessis kind of upset. That said, people who beat Poirier tend to do it by catching him out coming forward or being able to really tie him up on the mat. Maybe Saint-Denis can do that, but I don’t really feel like his wrestling game is so strong that I’d just bank on it to get the job done. Otherwise, he does a lot of defenseless wading in with his head on line, the kind of stuff that Poirier is great at countering and making people pay for. Could be that BSD gets it done on power and grit, but I’ll take Dustin Poirier by decision.

Tim: I think this is a bad match-up for Poirier and I’m a little puzzled as to why anyone (other than Saint-Denis) thinks this is the right fight to make. Poirier should be fighting Rafael dos Anjos and BSD should be fighting Mateusz Gamrot. I’m worried that Poirier’s durability might be starting to slide as he enters the wrong side of 35. I’m sure he’s motivated to stop a young buck here and prove the oddsmakers wrong, but Saint-Denis will be coming in knowing he can make a name for himself if he makes Poirier go limp. I think the Frenchman will do just that, thanks to his power, speed and youth advantage.

Nate: I still believe in Poirier. But I want him out of the Octagon and boxing Nate Diaz as soon as possible. Dustin Poirier via decision.

Staff picking Poirier: Nate, Kristen, Stephie, Victor, Evan, Zane
Staff picking Saint Denis: Dayne, Chris, Tim

Kevin Holland vs. Michael Page

Blaine: When I was filming my last episode of Fight Finders at Main Street Boxing in Houston, I saw Holland and asked him, “How do you train for a guy like MVP?” He looked at me shocked and said, “MVP better be training for a guy like me!” Later in the day, he was sparring and he looked at me Holloway style in the middle of the spar and started yelling at me, “MVP better be ready for me! He better be training for a guy like me!” as he was piecing his sparring partner up. I’m going with Holland via decision. 

Dayne: I wish Page had been able to make the trip over to the UFC earlier as there are so many unique talents I’d love to see him square off against. Now that he’s 36, there’s a good chance he’s already past his prime as he is set to make his UFC debut. I’m not sure how good he is in comparison to UFC fighters as there’s a big drop from the likes of Douglas Lima to Goiti Yamauchi and Derek Anderson. Holland is a great midpoint test who will have a major advantage on the ground… provided he takes the fight there.

There’s no doubt Holland is a unique talent. But so is Page. And while Holland has plus power and a range that is difficult to deal with, he has struggled with disciplined strikers, ala Stephen Thompson and Jack Della Maddalena. While Page is known for his flash, he is disciplined on the feet. He has also done an excellent job of modeling his game to avoid his weaknesses. Perhaps if I trusted Holland to take the fight to the mat, I’d feel different. As it is, trusting Holland is something we’ve all learned we can’t do, even if we can’t help but love his devil may care attitude. Page via decision

Victor: The biggest knock on Page is that he feasted on less-than-optimal opposition. He moved up the ranks and outwrestled and older and yet more limited grappler in Paul Daley, but stumbled over any other step up. That Douglas Lima knockout? That weighs heavy on me. Holland can absolutely snuff him out and not play that distance game, plus he’s gonna test that takedown defense and really stunt on him on the ground if it goes there. Kevin Holland by TKO, round 3. 

Zane: Holland is definitely the kind of dude who might give MVP exactly the fight he needs to get a big win in his UFC debut. But that fight runs on such narrow margins, and has a lot to do with Page being way bigger and rangier than his opposition. He won’t have that with Holland. As long as Holland can crash the pocket without getting KO’d and get a couple takedowns, I have to pick him to win. Kevin Holland via Submission, round 2.

Tim: I just don’t buy Page as a UFC calibre fighter. Holland can be temperamental and unorthodox, to his own detriment at times. But Page is even worse in those departments. I think Holland is technically sound enough that he will catch Page on the chin while Page is doing some kind of rope-a-dope BS. Kevin Holland via KO, round 1.

Nate: MVP was probably the most exciting name Bellator had in the last little while. I’m excited to see him in the Octagon, but I think Holland will have too much for him. Kevin Holland via decision.

Staff picking Holland: Nate, Kristen, Stephie, Victor, Zane, Tim*
Staff picking Page: Dayne, Chris, Evan

Gilbert Burns vs. Jack Della Maddalena

Dayne: I’ve had a bad habit of underestimating Burns. Having previously fought at lightweight, I’ve routinely thought his smaller welterweight frame was problematic and made it difficult for him to operate in his grappling wheelhouse. The only times it really happened were against bigger 170ers in Kamaru Usman and Khamzat Chimaev as well as a fight he never should have taken against Belal Muhammad. Now, if there’s anything people will circle as a weakness in Della Maddalena, it’s his ability to stop takedowns. True, Della Maddalena is great at getting back to his feet, but he hasn’t faced a grapping ace like Burns.