UFC 298 staff picks and predictions
See who we are picking to win at UFC 298 this weekend.
UFC 298 goes down in Anaheim this Saturday. And it has a fascinating main card on tap for us. The main event sees UFC featherweight champion Alexander Volkanovski defending his title against the upstart Ilia Topuria (who is already dreaming of fighting Conor McGregor in a soccer stadium). The co-main event is a middleweight bout that I can’t believe hasn’t happened yet, with Robert Whittaker meeting Paulo Costa.
Rounding out the main card we have Ian Machado Garry vs. Geoff Neal and Merab Dvalishvili vs. Henry Cejudo. Those should be fun.
There are are some interesting match-ups hiding in the prelims, too, with Amanda Lemos vs. Mackenzie Dern and Rinya Nakamura vs. Carlos Vera.
As always, we here at Bloody Elbow have looked this card up and down and penned down who think is going to win each and every match-up.
After doing that, most of us think we’re going to hear Bruce Bruffer thunder out “And STILL…” on Saturday night. Though, it’s not a landslide. Some of us think Topuria might just be the real deal (or that Volkanovski might have fallen off).
Scroll down for the rest of our UFC 298 picks. And don’t forget to tell us who you are picking in the comments below!
Alexander Volkanovski vs. Ilia Topuria
Anton Tabuena: I'm struggling with this pick. There's a lot of talk about Volkanovski's age and his ability after the Makhachev KO loss, but looking at things logically, we really shouldn't put much meaning into him losing to a P4P champ when that was in a higher division and with no training. Hindsight being 20/20, it's clear that just wasn't a fair fight from the very start and we shouldn't be judging his current and future prospects from that. At the same time, I understand why Volkanovski's mystique seems to have cracked for many, especially with Topuria looking like a well rounded beast with everything seemingly going for him.
Topuria is younger, faster, with more power and finishing ability. Skill wise, if we look at individual aspects, Topuria also has sharper boxing — at least on offense — and what seems to be much more a technical jiujitsu game. That said, Volkanovski puts everything together better. His overall striking and grappling are more rounded for MMA, especially with his distance management and transitions. His setups are far more nuanced and deliberate, while Topuria still has moments where he focuses on unleashing combinations, while forgoing defense and relying on his chin and offensive onslaught to overwhelm people.
It's such an intriguing match up because of the skills and danger Topuria brings, and this is where I go back to my internal conflict. Until worries about his slowing game and age have actual basis, the logical pick should really still be Volkanovski. He should have the experience, a more complete game, and a deeper understanding of the sport that brings out his ability to adjust and possibly solve this tough challenge. BUT despite all of that, I just can't help but think Topuria's specific advantages will be more than enough. Maybe a part of that is still me being clouded by their recent performances, but I can't shake the feeling that Topuria is about to start a new era at featherweight. Ilia Topuria by TKO.
Chris: I’m trying to use metrics to make my picks this year, but some of my metrics can be described as anecdotal observations. Anyway, I’ve come to the conclusion that by the time the UFC starts marketing a champ using the word GOAT, that champ is in danger. “...and new”
Dayne: There is something to having an aura around a fighter. While Volkanovski may have opened up 2023 with a loss, it was a razor thin loss up a weight class to a fighter many consider to be the P4P best in Islam Makhachev. Volk’s aura only grew stronger from that performance. That aura was shattered in their rematch. Makhachev not only managed to finish him in the first round, he dominated Volk every second up until the finish. Even with him having taken the fight on short notice and again up a weight class, Volk’s aura is absolutely shattered.
Volk’s approach to this fight has been different too. His most notable soundbite has been how he was drinking more than his share of beers prior to getting the short notice rematch with Makhachev. While I believe it and say it’s valid, he’s making excuses, which isn’t like him. In the past Volk just accepted what was put in front of him and demolished them. He got tired of people saying Max Holloway won their second fight, so he asked for a third fight against a man he beat twice already to shut up his critics.
As for Topuria, his confidence level is reminiscent of Conor McGregor’s ascent. Not as loud, but it is just as bold. He’s got a stout build similar to Volk and an understated all-around game. Topuria made a point of standing and trading with Josh Emmett and Jai Herbert and beating them there. He went to the mat with Ryan Hall and demolished him and subbed Bryce Mitchell. He’s fearless, much younger than Volk, and has a lot less wear on his body. As great as Volk is, 35 is old for the division. I see a passing of the torch. Topuria via TKO of RD2
Zane: It’s hard not to think that Topuria can come out with confidence raging and just take a fight to Volkanovski that the old lion may no longer be equipped to handle. Was Chris Weidman truly a better striker than Anderson Silva, was Max Holloway lightyears ahead of Jose Aldo the first time they fought? It may just be that Volk is reaching a point where he doesn’t pull the trigger quite as much as he used too and Topuria’s quality boxing and unflappable confidence is prepared to take the title. That said, beating Emmett is a far cry from Volkanovski. Emmett may be powerful, but he’s predictable to a fault, he doesn’t feint, he doesn’t set traps, he just throws consistently with huge power. I’m taking Volk to look like the man who undressed Max Holloway last time they fought and to present just a few too many new wrinkles that Topuria hasn’t seen before. Alex Volkanovski by decision.
Tim: We’ve only ever seen Volkanovski struggle against one person and it’s because there was a skill gap in wrestling. We’ve seen Volkanovski dismantle guys with a striking skill gap (on paper) throughout his career. Topuria is a dangerous fighter, but I don’t think he can avoid what Volkanovski does so well. He’ll be smothered, rushed and outworked throughout the fight and, because of that, he won’t have time and space to land the offence that has been so successful against others. Alexander Volkanovski via decision
Staff picking Volkanovski: Ben, Kristen, Victor, Evan, Jack, Zane, Eddie, Tim
Staff picking Topuria: Chris, Dayne, Stephie, Anton
Robert Whittaker vs. Paulo Costa
Anton: People have been talking about Volkanovski's possible decline, but I'm actually more worried about Whittaker in that regard. Dricus has the belt now, so it shouldn't be too "bad" to have his only losses against two champs, but with Whittaker being so small for the division, his durability and reaction time worsening could end of his time as an elite competitor. Outside of size and raw punching power, Whittaker should be far more technical with advantages in just about every aspect of this fight, so I'm still picking him, but at the same time I also said that about Dricus so I guess we'll see. Robert Whittaker by decision.
Chris: This is a tough one, but I think about Whittaker’s run to get rematch with Israel Adesanya, how deliberate his performances were and combine that with him acknowledging that he didn’t take DDP seriously enough. These two mindset factors lead me to believe in his focus and approach towards the fight. Also I always pick the technician over unorthodox fighter. Costa has become one of the best fighters on the planet to use twitter, but in the cage, he’s still an unknown quantity.
Dayne: The UFC would benefit if Costa was as good as how he portrays himself to be. Over the last five years, his only clear cut victory has come over a washed Luke Rockhold… and that wasn’t exactly a great performance. His last finish came in 2018. Granted, part of the reason for all the long delays is a lack of activity out of Costa, but that’s hardly a ringing endorsement either.
Whittaker looked bad against Dricuss du Plessis, but du Plessis has since become champion and it was revealed Whittaker was heavily compromised in that contest. Proper to that, he looked like a million bucks in picking apart Marvin Vettori. Provided he’s healthy, a technician like Whittaker should be able to pick apart Costa with ease. Whittaker via decision
Zane: Assuming that the tread isn’t just off the tires with Robert Whittaker, this should be a pretty forgiving style matchup. We’ve seen Costa get utterly shut down by considered, dangerous range striking threats before, and we’ve seen Whittaker control and command a host of top contenders. Robert Whittaker via TKO, round 2.
Tim: I just don’t know how serious Costa is taking this fight at UFC 298 (or anything else). So I can’t pick him. I feel like we are going to see something similar to the Derek Brunson fight with Whittaker here. He’ll catch Costa barrelling forwards and put him away. Robert Whittaker via TKO.
Staff picking Whittaker: Ben, Chris, Dayne, Stephie, Kristen, Victor, Evan, Eddie, Jack*, Zane, Tim, Anton
Staff picking Costa:
Geoff Neal vs. Ian Machado Garry
Anton: I haven't been paying attention and don't at all care about any drama in Garry's personal life, but skill wise, I think he's among the few very intriguing rising stars in the UFC now. I'm still not sure how far he can go in a division with tough match ups like Leon Edwards and Shavkat Rakhmonov, but I think he should look really good against Geoff Neal. Ian Machado Garry by dominant decision.
Chris: Geoff Neal beats everyone he should, and there seems to be a clear line in the sand of skill & talent that he cannot cross. Although Ian Garry falls short in so many categories: personality, familial, and trash talk, he seems perfectly capable of leaving those shortcomings outside of the cage and performs with a level of focus and still developing talent that should see him victorious.
Dayne: Garry has benefitted for the UFC taking their time with him. There were holes in his early UFC tenure that could have been exposed in the right matchups that aren’t going to be so easy to exploit as time has gone on. Had this contest been made a year ago, I’d be jumping all over Neal to secure the win. However, in that time, Garry has improved his distance management to the point that I’m far from positive who will win this contest.
Neal has had a bit of a Jekyll and Hyde vibe; sometimes he looks like a future champ, other times he looks disinterested. He seems to do best when he believes he’s being disrespected. Perhaps that’s the vibe he’ll get and come out and blast Garry. Despite that, I’m still picking Garry as I haven’t seen any reason to believe his continued improvement doesn’t seem like it’s about to level off quite yet. Garry via decision
Zane: I expect this to look a lot like the Wonderboy fight for Neal. Too much footwork, too many kicks, too much range and too many straight punches. Ian Machado Garry via decision.
Tim: I believe the hype. I think Ian Machado Garry will be too well-rounded, quick and disciplined to fall for Neal’s hard shots here. I don’t know if he’ll get a finish, but I think UFC 298 will be the coming out party the Irishman has been hungry for. Ian Machado Garry via unanimous decision
Staff picking Neal:
Staff picking Machado Garry: Ben, Chris, Dayne, Stephie, Victor, Evan, Kristen, Eddie, Jack, Zane, Tim, Anton
Merab Dvalishvili vs. Henry Cejudo
Anton: Looking only at technique, Cejudo should be the much better striker, and the more technical wrestler that can neutralize a lot of his takedowns, especially early on. But Dvalishvili probably won't give him space and time to breathe, and his pace and tenacity will be very hard to deal with as the fight goes on. Cejudo is lucky to have this be just a three round fight, so I do think he has a chance, but I'm still going with Dvalishvili to just grind on the 37-year-old and get his hand raised. Merab Dvalishvili by close decision.
Chris: Bet the house (don’t bet the house) on Merab, this is my LOCK
Dayne: Cejudo’s retirement has ensured he’s fresher at this late age of 37 than most others are, but he is still 37 in a lighter weight class. Plus, the former Olympic gold medalist in wrestling wasn’t the more effective ground fighter against Aljamain Sterling. Given there isn’t anyone who is going to outwork the insistent Dvalishvili – especially at Cejudo’s age – it seems the only logical route to victory is for Cejudo to catch Dvalishvili with a bomb. Not impossible, but unlikely.
I hate to discount someone who might have been crowned champion in his last contest had a break or two gone a different way, but Dvalishvili looked like the best bantamweight in the division even before his teammate, Sterling, was dethroned. Dvalishvili made Petr Yan, a former champion in his own right, look like he didn’t belong in the same cage. Dvalishvili better receive his title shot after he disposes of Cejudo. Dvalishvili via decision
Zane: Henry Cejudo should still be able to handle Dvalishvili’s physicality and wrestling to the point that he doesn’t just get run out of the fight. But I don’t at all expect him to be able to handle Dvalishvili’s pace. Merab Dvalishvili by decision.
Tim: A guy on the rise vs. a guy on the decline. Feels like an obvious pick because it is. Merab Dvalishvili via unanimous decision
Staff picking Dvalishvili: Ben, Chris*, Dayne, Stephie, Kristen, Victor*, Evan*, Eddie, Jack, Zane, Tim*, Anton
Staff picking Cejudo:
Anthony Hernandez vs. Roman Kopylov
Dayne: Perhaps the most underrated contest on the card, this is a tough contest to predict. The read isn’t hard. Hernandez is one of the premier pressure fighters, utilizing stamina and constant forward motion to make up for any physical deficiencies he might have. Kopylov is one of the cleaner strikers in the division with an impressive array of attacks and plenty of power. Kopylov does have some deficiencies on the mat, but Hernandez is also there to be hit.
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