UFC 297: Strickland vs. Du Plessis - Expert analysis and predictions from the MMA Vivisection team

Bloody Elbow is back with highlights from the MMA Vivisection's best fight picks.

Illustration by Chris Rini.

The MMA Vivisection got off to a strong start in 2024. I went 9-2 for fight picks at UFC Vegas: Ankalaev vs. Walker 2, with Connor coming it at 8-3. We differed on picking Jim Miller/Gabriel Benitez, Waldo Cortes-Acosta vs. Andrei Arlovski, and Preston Parsons vs. Matthew Semelsberger.

The biggest win of the night, however, came from our breakdown of Mario Bautista vs. Ricky Simon. Both Connor and I felt like Bautista had a seriously good shot at winning as an underdog, if he could assert his pressure game and force Simon to try and shoot his takedowns off the back foot. While Simone had some early success, Bautista’s persistance really paid off as the fight went on, netting him a unanimous decision victory.

For UFC 297, we’ve once again got a couple of split reads, most importantly in the night’s main event. As always, however, we’re not running the Vivi as a gambling service, neither Connor nor I put money on fights. Our aim is always to help fans understand matchups and expected outcomes. If that also happens to help people make a few bucks? Then that’s a great byproduct.

That said, let’s take a look at our main card reads for this week’s PPV.

Sean Strickland vs. Dricus du Plessis

Connor’s keys to the fight

• These men both feel like true middleweights, in that they’re extremely limited.

• Dricus du Plessis has a lot of Yoel Romero’s physicality, but none of his grace.

• Dynamic could be like a clunkier version of Adesanya/Gastelum.

• Du Plessis constantly squares himself up and puts his chin in the air.

• Constantly off balance and wild with his combinations.

• Du Plessis has lost large portions of almost all his UFC fights.

• He’s also super tough and courageous though. Never quits on a fight, puts fear into opponents.

• Trying to be defensive against du Plessis is difficult for the awkwardness and power of his style.

• He’s also very aware of all the action during a fight, has great recall.

• Sean Strickland’s style shouldn’t work as well as it does either.

• Strickland is also very upright and square.

• When Strickland is winning it makes a lot more sense why he’s winning.

• Du Plessis will learn to solve problems over the course of a fight.

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“This is middleweight folks. Like, this is what most middleweights look like. This is a much better representation of the division than your Israel Adesanyas and Anderson Silvas ever could be. And it is not an easy fight to call. No, as typical middleweight fights usually are, it's difficult to say who's worse?” - Connor Ruebusch

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Zane’s keys to the fight

• Both these guys are very beatable, whichever way the fight goes.

• Dricus du Plessis’ game isn’t all that functional in design, but when he successfully executs something it tends to be with maximum force.

• Sean Strickland should be winning the minute-to-minute striking battles.

• Without his physical tools Du Plessis game wouldn’t work at all.

• Sean Strickland will be the most ‘stick to what works’ opponent du Plessis has ever faced.

• Strickland doesn’t look to set up perfect strikes or perfect moments, he just sticks to his jab and works behind it.

• Du Plessis likely won’t solve Strickland’s jab, he’ll just have to focus on fighting through it.

• Eric Nicksick should be able to get Strickland prepared for du Plessis’ blitzing style.

• Strickland tries to guess on defensive parries too much, and can be caught for it.

• Feels like a du Plessis vs. Adesanya title fight is still destined for the future.

• Strickland won’t offer du Plessis any change of pace or different issues to deal with.

Connor’s pick: Sean Strickland for his toughness and consistency.

Zane’s pick: Dricus du Plessis for his power and willingness to charge forward.