The UFC decides the best antitrust defense is an offensive against the Judge

Ari Emanuel's political campaign to poison the jury pool begins.

A young Richard Boulware (via: Mike Russell/Realfightstories.com)

Team UFC’s recent behavior in response to Judge Richard Boulware rejection od their proposed $335 million antitrust settlement with fighters raises an obvious question:

Did UFC have a Plan B in place in case the settlement fell through?

Team UFC is certainly not acting as if they plan to re-enter negotiations to settle either the Cung Le or Kajan Johnson classes.

We’ll get more information on Team UFC’s battle plan on their Thursday morning conference call but in the meantime, here’s what we can infer from public information.

If you follow the money, TKO has convinced institutional investors and analysts - aka Big Money - that the free cash flow monster won’t be stopped any time soon thanks to new media deals on the horizon and a certitude that no matter what happens, UFC will prevail in the antitrust trial one way or another.

Now that Judge Richard Boulware has said no to the proposed $335 million antitrust settlement, it’s important to focus on who is likely making the key decisions at TKO.

Ari Emanuel and Mark Shapiro are calling the shots. This is no longer a Dana White story and hasn’t been for a long time. Dana will be a useful laser pointer against his enemies but he is not in control of how TKO navigates uncharted antitrust waters, no matter how much buffoonery he spews during interviews.

UFC losing an antitrust trial is the biggest threat to TKO’s business model which is designed to fuel the Endeavor empire with insane amounts of cash flow. TKO, especially the UFC, is a government contractor, a political shop, and a major subset of Endeavor’s massive cultural influence machine.

An attack on TKO, is a challenge to Ari Emanuel’s raw political power. He is not going to stay on the sidelines much longer. Ari Emanuel sees everything in business and culture through a political lens. His politics are simple: anything that benefits him and his business is good; anything that hurts his interests is bad. He knows no other way.

With it just now dawning on Team UFC that they have an unfriendly Federal judge who can help shape jury instructions and admissible testimony in the antitrust trial, Ari Emanuel has only one trump card to play: poison the jury pool.

Endeavor/TKO can do this by transitioning from a legal fight to a negative political campaign.

Since the plaintiffs in this UFC antitrust case agreed to a proposed $335 million settlement — that Judge Boulware rejected — the only target UFC has to use as a foil is the judge himself.

Ari Emanuel is going to be tempted to use the same playbook that Donald Trump used on Judge Juan Merchan in New York. As Saul Alinsky famously wrote in Rules for Radicals: pick the target; freeze it; then polarize it.

If you can’t win on the law, then pound the table. Since the plaintiff’s attorneys have come to terms with Team UFC, the only obstacle between Endeavor and complete victory over their antitrust issues is Judge Boulware.

We’re already starting to see Team UFC pursuing some angles of attack to poison public opinion against Judge Boulware. Through a mixture of both direct and indirect attacks, Ari Emanuel can turn UFC vs. Judge Boulware into Trump vs. Harris.

This is going to become Ari’s own special election. Judge Boulware is the political incumbent and he is going to be portrayed as the out-of-touch elitist activist who hates capitalism, hates sport, hates fighters, and hates fans.

The goal of this negative campaign by Team UFC is simple: convince one juror that they’re not guilty of antitrust violations.

In a Federal antitrust trial, all it takes is one juror to say no and UFC wins.

Attacking Judge Boulware is a risky proposition. We’re used to Dana White clumsily bulldozing his enemies. Dana’s level of not-so-sophisticated attacks will have limited effectiveness.

Luckily for Team UFC, they have a master manipulator as the final boss: Ari Emanuel. If you think his brother Rahm is vicious and vindictive, wait until you see the level of power that Ari can exert against someone he deems to be a threat to his empire.

With his back against the wall, Ari Emanuel must lure both Judge Boulware and the plaintiffs into a nasty mudfight.

With a compressed schedule before a proposed trial date in the case, Team UFC will have to attack fast.

What would a full-throated Ari Emanuel-driven negative campaign look like against Judge Boulware? What themes can Team UFC exploit to generate political sympathy?