Report: UFC PPV numbers 'are way way down since ESPN deal started'
The NY Post's Erich Richter reports that things are much worse between the UFC & ESPN than previously known
Erich Richter of The NY Post dropped a video yesterday with some pretty staggering claims.
Here are some highlights:
“ESPN has pretty much stopped putting UFC programming on cable TV whether that be ABC, ESPN 2, (or) ESPN. That's kind of stopped. ESPN has basically stopped putting it on cable. It's been exclusively on ESPN+. If ESPN isn't putting UFC on their cable broadcast, I feel like that is indicative of where they feel about each other right now. I think that ESPN might be frustrated with UFC (because) the product the quality isn't very high.”
I’d been noticing that UFC wasn’t making it onto cable much less broadcast, but I had assumed that it was just because of college basketball season. But Richter points out that “college football always take precedent over over UFC, but college basketball taking precedent is a little new.”
The second big claim Richter makes confirms what many long-time UFC fans have suspected, their PPV numbers are way, way down:
“I talk to people who are close to fighters who say pay-per-view numbers are way down and this has been the case since ESPN started. The fighters (are) getting less in pay-per-view points it's almost like that part of their contract is almost becoming pointless because the pay-per-view buys are so much less. There's no way that ESPN is getting 300,000 pay-per-view buys out of every pay-per-view from what I was told. So this has been a bad marriage in the last couple years for both parties.”
This clears up a lot of cognitive dissonance for those of use whose brains just could not accept claims that the UFC’s PPV lineups in the post-covid era were posting big numbers.
Richter’s third report aligns with much of what I wrote earlier this week (piece is now free to read) about where the UFC wants to land when they sign their new media rights deal.
Richter says:
“The UFC has a 7-year deal with ESPN to host their pay-per-views which expires at the end of the year and they are currently in their exclusive negotiating window (which ends on) April 15th. The UFC wants a lot of money. They want, from what I was told, a billion plus per year (for the UFC media rights). So going forward the biggest questions is ‘who is the UFC going to go with and who are the other potential suitors?’
“When I put that article out on Sunday night , I got a call from somebody who's pretty well connected and he said almost definitely Netflix. ‘Surely’ I believe was the exact word. So I would venture to guess that the UFC will do anything in their power to go to Netflix.
“Now where it gets interesting is Netflix is seemingly unwilling at this point to dive into the pay-per-view model. Mark Shapiro had said that they're willing to be flexible. That is a direct comment to to Netflix: ‘look at us we are willing to play ball.’
“I think that Netflix (will) have to be careful, too. (If) Netflix is gonna pay a ton of money for the UFC, they have to be careful not to piss off their existing user base by upping the price of Netflix.
“My prediction is that the UFC will sign on with Netflix starting at the beginning of 2026 and that the UFC will have a different package similar to ESPN+ but only UFC.”
I agree with Richter that Netflix is clearly the UFC’s preferred streaming partner going forward. However, I have a very hard time imagining Netflix modifying their entire business model to serve the UFC.
Netflix CFO Spence Neumann’s comments to Deadline last week that “…not all live content works for us … and being in the business of regular season, of full seasons of big sports, we haven’t found that yet to be something that we necessarily need to deliver” seem to confirm my instincts.
Zach Arnold and I will have a podcast for subscribers dropping tomorrow in which we discuss the argument over whether or not the current UFC product is “slop” or not.
This report about plummeting PPV numbers in the ESPN era would seem to be some serious ammo on the side of the “entitled old timers” who have been heaping scorn on what Endeavor/TKO has done to the UFC product since buying the promotion in 2016.
Nate Wilcox is Editor-in-Chief of The MMA Draw newsletter on Substack.
It's easy to see two negotiating powerhouses like ESPN and Endeavor in a dirty mudslinging contest during media rights hardball meetings. I get it. And I also get that there likely be some sort of new arrangement (TKO Boxing?) or settlement to let by-gones be by-gones.
But something doesn't feel right here. If you had asked me two or three months ago what I thought of Endeavor's negotiating position, I would have felt extremely confident that they could take this home and get most of the concessions they wanted. I still believe the over/under on the final package will be $850 million dollars, which is nothing to sneeze at.
But what if that doesn't materialize? What is the value of UFC right now? Their brand is stronger than ever, but do they help their business partners grow? Or is attaching yourself to UFC simply amplifying brand awareness? If it's awareness, that has less value to established brands and media partners than an upstart that needs "mainstreaming."
There's a guy I know who bought every PPV from about 2010 until 2019 using a VPN to Japan and paying around $27 each. He was hardcore into the product. Then the double paywall with ESPN+ happened and they cracked down on VPN. There was a brief period around covid where the VPN restrictions were loosened and then things went back to normal.
My friend no longer watches. But man was it fun while it lasted. Ahem..at least that's what my friend says.