It's easy to see two negotiating powerhouses like ESPN and Endeavor in a dirty mudslinging contest during media rights hardball meetings. I get it. And I also get that there likely be some sort of new arrangement (TKO Boxing?) or settlement to let by-gones be by-gones.
But something doesn't feel right here. If you had asked me two or three months ago what I thought of Endeavor's negotiating position, I would have felt extremely confident that they could take this home and get most of the concessions they wanted. I still believe the over/under on the final package will be $850 million dollars, which is nothing to sneeze at.
But what if that doesn't materialize? What is the value of UFC right now? Their brand is stronger than ever, but do they help their business partners grow? Or is attaching yourself to UFC simply amplifying brand awareness? If it's awareness, that has less value to established brands and media partners than an upstart that needs "mainstreaming."
In retrospect, do we believe that Spike TV was happy about their association with the UFC? (It worked for them great at the time, but in the end look where they ended up).
Was Fox happy to have been associated with the UFC? I don't even think they were happy with the deal at the time. From the moment JDS KO'd Cain in 65 seconds that marriage was bumpy.
Now it looks like ESPN is going to be the next partner to leave unhappy after having been partners with the UFC for several years. In retrospect it would have been better for both had they not extended the deal the 2 extra years and brought PPV onto ESPN. That was one of Shapiro's greatest short-term scores/long-term disasters.
And if you remember, following the UFC, Fox partnered with WWE for broadcasting Smackdown, but the same thing happened. In the long run, it wasn't really profitable for Fox. I remember, one Youtuber made a video saying the Reebok was a failure, and I responded by saying the deal only benefited one party and it was the UFC.
some dumbass n00b UFC fan was going on and on about how "fighter pay sucked in the golden age but that didn't stop them from producing so many starts" and the kid had no idea that fighters could double or triple their money with sponsorships AND field competing offers from other promotions AND there was an assumption that if the sport blew up that athlete pay would grow along with it.
Yes because he became a UFC fan back in 2015 or afterwards, so he had no idea about fighters having their sponsors before then. And as you and I well know, the Reebok deal was only the end of a process that started back in 2009 when the UFC put a sponsorship tax in place.
There's a guy I know who bought every PPV from about 2010 until 2019 using a VPN to Japan and paying around $27 each. He was hardcore into the product. Then the double paywall with ESPN+ happened and they cracked down on VPN. There was a brief period around covid where the VPN restrictions were loosened and then things went back to normal.
My friend no longer watches. But man was it fun while it lasted. Ahem..at least that's what my friend says.
The UFC-ESPN marriage worked when McGregor and Jones were reasonably active fighters and Masvidal caught lightning in a bottle.
Jones is close to retirement. McGregor is not an active fighter nor particularly relevant. Masvidal is not on the UFC roster anymore. Adesanya could conceivably be considered a draw but he's on the downside of his career.
ESPN is also notorious for pushing outgoing product aside as a means of dropping a deal (see: MLB right now and NHL pre-lockout).
I think ESPN was hoping there would be a constant pipeline of PPV stars to promote and it's stopped happening.
coincidentally because the UFC under Endeavor has been in "value extraction mode" and not in "growth mode" -- they've deliberately avoided building new stars (see Ngannou, Francis) because they don't want to pay star money.
This confirms what I suspected ever since the ESPN deal started regarding the PPV numbers. As far as ESPN not putting UFC content on cable TV, this is also the confirmation UFC doesn't have good ratings. If I remember correctly, that was also the case during the Fox deal, and it looks like the outcome will be the same.
I still prefer the teeth flying days, up to the point of Oleg Taktarov. The brains of the operation departing with the "big" sale turned out to be a big problem. I suspect value extraction reaches a tipping point when enough of the fan base scatters for Survivor re-runs. "Slop" indeed - it's not even Ralston caliber ! Thanks for highlighting the report.
So many pay-per-view’s are nowhere near worth $90. Even going to a bar that shows it and spending $40 on food and drink is sometimes tough to get people to spend on the UFC for whatever reason made it about them and not having stars. I think also the Netflix deal will end like how other meteorites deals ended for an endeavor or TKO based promotion. They overpay for the media rights deal and then find later it wasn’t worth it.
I don't think Netflix is dumb enough to buy the whole package though....and if they just cherry-pick the PLEs/PPVs, and say Amazon goes for the major fight nights but passes on the Apex events, who's gonna pony up for the slop? My bet is they end up with a package of stuff on DAZN....which might actually be helpful in Europe for guys like Topuria and Aspinall whose cards might finally be shown at prime time in their home markets
It's easy to see two negotiating powerhouses like ESPN and Endeavor in a dirty mudslinging contest during media rights hardball meetings. I get it. And I also get that there likely be some sort of new arrangement (TKO Boxing?) or settlement to let by-gones be by-gones.
But something doesn't feel right here. If you had asked me two or three months ago what I thought of Endeavor's negotiating position, I would have felt extremely confident that they could take this home and get most of the concessions they wanted. I still believe the over/under on the final package will be $850 million dollars, which is nothing to sneeze at.
But what if that doesn't materialize? What is the value of UFC right now? Their brand is stronger than ever, but do they help their business partners grow? Or is attaching yourself to UFC simply amplifying brand awareness? If it's awareness, that has less value to established brands and media partners than an upstart that needs "mainstreaming."
In retrospect, do we believe that Spike TV was happy about their association with the UFC? (It worked for them great at the time, but in the end look where they ended up).
Was Fox happy to have been associated with the UFC? I don't even think they were happy with the deal at the time. From the moment JDS KO'd Cain in 65 seconds that marriage was bumpy.
Now it looks like ESPN is going to be the next partner to leave unhappy after having been partners with the UFC for several years. In retrospect it would have been better for both had they not extended the deal the 2 extra years and brought PPV onto ESPN. That was one of Shapiro's greatest short-term scores/long-term disasters.
And if you remember, following the UFC, Fox partnered with WWE for broadcasting Smackdown, but the same thing happened. In the long run, it wasn't really profitable for Fox. I remember, one Youtuber made a video saying the Reebok was a failure, and I responded by saying the deal only benefited one party and it was the UFC.
some dumbass n00b UFC fan was going on and on about how "fighter pay sucked in the golden age but that didn't stop them from producing so many starts" and the kid had no idea that fighters could double or triple their money with sponsorships AND field competing offers from other promotions AND there was an assumption that if the sport blew up that athlete pay would grow along with it.
Yes because he became a UFC fan back in 2015 or afterwards, so he had no idea about fighters having their sponsors before then. And as you and I well know, the Reebok deal was only the end of a process that started back in 2009 when the UFC put a sponsorship tax in place.
There's a guy I know who bought every PPV from about 2010 until 2019 using a VPN to Japan and paying around $27 each. He was hardcore into the product. Then the double paywall with ESPN+ happened and they cracked down on VPN. There was a brief period around covid where the VPN restrictions were loosened and then things went back to normal.
My friend no longer watches. But man was it fun while it lasted. Ahem..at least that's what my friend says.
the product is priced beyond what the market will bear in many cases
The UFC-ESPN marriage worked when McGregor and Jones were reasonably active fighters and Masvidal caught lightning in a bottle.
Jones is close to retirement. McGregor is not an active fighter nor particularly relevant. Masvidal is not on the UFC roster anymore. Adesanya could conceivably be considered a draw but he's on the downside of his career.
ESPN is also notorious for pushing outgoing product aside as a means of dropping a deal (see: MLB right now and NHL pre-lockout).
I think ESPN was hoping there would be a constant pipeline of PPV stars to promote and it's stopped happening.
coincidentally because the UFC under Endeavor has been in "value extraction mode" and not in "growth mode" -- they've deliberately avoided building new stars (see Ngannou, Francis) because they don't want to pay star money.
It's clear they avoided building stars but at the same time failed to build fighters into new stars because they don't know how like Francis Ngannou.
This confirms what I suspected ever since the ESPN deal started regarding the PPV numbers. As far as ESPN not putting UFC content on cable TV, this is also the confirmation UFC doesn't have good ratings. If I remember correctly, that was also the case during the Fox deal, and it looks like the outcome will be the same.
I still prefer the teeth flying days, up to the point of Oleg Taktarov. The brains of the operation departing with the "big" sale turned out to be a big problem. I suspect value extraction reaches a tipping point when enough of the fan base scatters for Survivor re-runs. "Slop" indeed - it's not even Ralston caliber ! Thanks for highlighting the report.
So many pay-per-view’s are nowhere near worth $90. Even going to a bar that shows it and spending $40 on food and drink is sometimes tough to get people to spend on the UFC for whatever reason made it about them and not having stars. I think also the Netflix deal will end like how other meteorites deals ended for an endeavor or TKO based promotion. They overpay for the media rights deal and then find later it wasn’t worth it.
I don't think Netflix is dumb enough to buy the whole package though....and if they just cherry-pick the PLEs/PPVs, and say Amazon goes for the major fight nights but passes on the Apex events, who's gonna pony up for the slop? My bet is they end up with a package of stuff on DAZN....which might actually be helpful in Europe for guys like Topuria and Aspinall whose cards might finally be shown at prime time in their home markets